Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LFT TO 35 E LFT TO 40 ENE LFT TO 40 NE LFT. ..BENTLEY..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093- 095-103-105-109-117-121-125-241340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC045-047-109-241340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-241340- Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LFT TO 35 E LFT TO 40 ENE LFT TO 40 NE LFT. ..BENTLEY..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093- 095-103-105-109-117-121-125-241340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC045-047-109-241340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-241340- Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 40 W UOX TO 40 NNE UOX TO 40 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-087-095- 097-107-115-117-119-133-135-139-141-145-155-161-310740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW CLAY COAHOMA GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE LOWNDES MONROE MONTGOMERY PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN SUNFLOWER Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 40 W UOX TO 40 NNE UOX TO 40 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-087-095- 097-107-115-117-119-133-135-139-141-145-155-161-310740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW CLAY COAHOMA GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE LOWNDES MONROE MONTGOMERY PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN SUNFLOWER Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more