Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more