Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more