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5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 79 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 310210Z - 310700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 79
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Ohio
Far Southwestern Pennsylvania
Northwestern West Virginia
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1010 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to continue quickly
eastward over the next few hours. Some strong to occasionally severe
gusts are possible within this line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Akron
OH to 25 miles south southwest of Parkersburg WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...WW 74...WW 76...WW
77...WW 78...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26045.
...Mosier
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC011-013-019-025-043-051-063-065-069-071-089-095-109-115-119-
121-125-127-129-131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-
199-203-205-231-235-237-310540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATH BELL BOYD
BREATHITT CARTER CLAY
ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING
FLOYD GREENUP HARLAN
JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT
KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE
LEE LESLIE LETCHER
MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN
MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
OWSLEY PERRY PIKE
POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY
WOLFE
OHC053-079-087-310540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310540-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE
FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MORGAN WALKER
WINSTON
ARC107-310540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS
MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-027-033-043-057-071-081-083-087-
093-095-097-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-155-161-
310540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0317 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 76... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Portions of western and middle Tennessee
Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...
Valid 310333Z - 310430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 76.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercell clusters continues across
portions of middle and western TN. Over middle TN, 50 kt of 0-6 km
shear (per OHX VWP) is oriented oblique to the line, which is
allowing supercells to stay along or immediately ahead of the gust
front. This is supporting ingestion of large boundary-layer
streamwise vorticity (around 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per OHX VWP) and a
greater tornado risk here. Farther southwest into western TN, 50 kt
of deep-layer shear is still supporting robust supercells, though
its parallel orientation to the gust front will continue favoring
slightly elevated inflow and a greater risk for large hail.
..Weinman.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...
LAT...LON 35149071 36498713 36558679 36378643 35748654 35358714
34828980 34689063 34919091 35149071
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0081 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...Far Northeast
Louisiana...Western Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 310137Z - 310400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop this evening across parts of
southeast Arkansas, far Northeast Louisiana and western Kentucky.
Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
central Arkansas, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front
across much of southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.
Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F.
This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range,
estimated by the RAP. Along the western edge of the stronger
instability, isolated storms have formed about 40 statute miles
south of Little Rock. The WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km
shear near 50 knots. This shear environment could support severe
storm development. However, some question remains whether the
large-scale forcing is strong enough for upscale growth of
convection. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates across southeast
Arkansas and western Mississippi around 7.5 C/km, suggesting that
the storms could produce isolated large hail. In addition,
supercells that develop would likely be accompanied by severe wind
gusts.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34809203 34969139 34909059 34678985 34278960 33578973
33029004 32769065 32729138 32809208 33009253 33309278
33959276 34539244 34809203
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0312 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 76... FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF OHIO...FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Southern half of Ohio...far northeastern
Kentucky...and far western West Virginia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...
Valid 310113Z - 310315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.
SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe wind gusts and
mesovortex tornadoes will continue eastward across the southern half
of Ohio. A local extension of Tornado Watch 76 is warranted, and
trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch as
well.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ILN depicts a
north/south-oriented squall line with embedded mesovorticies
tracking eastward at around 40 kt across the southern half of Ohio.
Ahead of the line, the ILN 00Z soundings sampled deep low-level
moisture and modest lapse rates -- contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE
(higher farther south). Despite the marginal instability, a 40 kt
low-level jet is favoring a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph
with around 330 0-1 km/effective SRH (per the 00Z sounding and
recent VWP data). Given the well-established cold pool and
moist/high-helicity inflow, severe gusts upwards of 70 mph and
mesovortex tornadoes remain possible in the near-term. Tornado Watch
76 will be extended to account for this near-term severe risk, and
areas farther downstream are being monitored for an additional
downstream watch. However, storms will eventually be approaching the
eastern edge of the warm sector, and limited buoyancy will
eventually limit the severe risk.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39118445 39978413 40308374 40378328 40298208 40038131
39798108 39238099 38658134 38348164 38338225 38538369
38748439 39118445
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0311 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 72...76... FOR FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Western and Middle
Tennessee...Western Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...76...
Valid 310102Z - 310300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72, 76 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop this evening across
western and middle Tennessee northward into western and central
Kentucky. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed across the
region soon.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
linear MCS from northeast Arkansas northeastward into far western
Kentucky. Ahead of the MCS, a moderately unstable airmass is
present, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
The MCS is located near the exit region of a 60 to 70 knot mid-level
jet, which is providing favorable large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer shear supportive of severe storms. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Hopkinsville, Kentucky is sampling the nose of the jet, with 0-6
km shear near 60 knots. The VWP also has strong directional shear in
the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear environment will be favorable for
supercells, embedded in the line or with isolated storms ahead of
the line. Supercells will be accompanied by a threat for large hail
and wind damage. Severe wind gusts will also be possible along the
leading edge of the faster moving line segments. The stronger parts
of the line could produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells that
become particularly intense and remain discrete could have tornado
potential as well.
..Broyles.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35168730 35858608 36598537 37038517 37368526 37608573
37718669 37658744 37328812 36468950 35909021 35519033
35249022 35038991 34988921 34968826 35168730
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0080 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0080 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE BMG
TO 20 SW FWA TO 30 NW FWA TO 20 SSW JXN.
..HART..03/20/25
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-029-031-033-035-041-047-053-059-065-069-075-095-
113-115-135-137-139-151-155-161-177-179-183-200340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DEARBORN DECATUR DE KALB
DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GRANT HANCOCK HENRY
HUNTINGTON JAY MADISON
NOBLE OHIO RANDOLPH
RIPLEY RUSH STEUBEN
SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE
WELLS WHITLEY
KYC015-037-041-077-081-117-187-191-200340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CAMPBELL CARROLL
GALLATIN GRANT KENTON
OWEN PENDLETON
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE BMG
TO 20 SW FWA TO 30 NW FWA TO 20 SSW JXN.
..HART..03/20/25
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-009-029-031-033-035-041-047-053-059-065-069-075-095-
113-115-135-137-139-151-155-161-177-179-183-200340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD
DEARBORN DECATUR DE KALB
DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GRANT HANCOCK HENRY
HUNTINGTON JAY MADISON
NOBLE OHIO RANDOLPH
RIPLEY RUSH STEUBEN
SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE
WELLS WHITLEY
KYC015-037-041-077-081-117-187-191-200340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CAMPBELL CARROLL
GALLATIN GRANT KENTON
OWEN PENDLETON
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO
45 ESE BMG TO 15 SSW LUK TO 35 WSW MFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..WEINMAN..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-077-143-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
JEFFERSON SCOTT
KYC023-027-029-081-085-093-103-111-135-161-163-179-183-185-187-
191-201-211-215-223-310240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN
HENRY JEFFERSON LEWIS
MASON MEADE NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO
45 ESE BMG TO 15 SSW LUK TO 35 WSW MFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..WEINMAN..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-077-143-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
JEFFERSON SCOTT
KYC023-027-029-081-085-093-103-111-135-161-163-179-183-185-187-
191-201-211-215-223-310240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN
HENRY JEFFERSON LEWIS
MASON MEADE NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO
45 ESE BMG TO 15 SSW LUK TO 35 WSW MFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..WEINMAN..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-077-143-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
JEFFERSON SCOTT
KYC023-027-029-081-085-093-103-111-135-161-163-179-183-185-187-
191-201-211-215-223-310240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN
HENRY JEFFERSON LEWIS
MASON MEADE NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO
45 ESE BMG TO 15 SSW LUK TO 35 WSW MFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..WEINMAN..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-077-143-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
JEFFERSON SCOTT
KYC023-027-029-081-085-093-103-111-135-161-163-179-183-185-187-
191-201-211-215-223-310240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN
HENRY JEFFERSON LEWIS
MASON MEADE NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO
45 ESE BMG TO 15 SSW LUK TO 35 WSW MFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..WEINMAN..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-077-143-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
JEFFERSON SCOTT
KYC023-027-029-081-085-093-103-111-135-161-163-179-183-185-187-
191-201-211-215-223-310240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN
HENRY JEFFERSON LEWIS
MASON MEADE NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OWB TO
45 ESE BMG TO 15 SSW LUK TO 35 WSW MFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
..WEINMAN..03/31/25
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-043-061-077-143-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FLOYD HARRISON
JEFFERSON SCOTT
KYC023-027-029-081-085-093-103-111-135-161-163-179-183-185-187-
191-201-211-215-223-310240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
GRANT GRAYSON HARDIN
HENRY JEFFERSON LEWIS
MASON MEADE NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM OWEN
PENDLETON ROBERTSON SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
WW 76 TORNADO IN KY OH 302245Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 76
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Southeast Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Far Southwest Ohio
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across
Indiana. The environment downstream is expected to support a
continued threat for severe thunderstorms, including the potential
for a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Dayton OH
to 45 miles west southwest of Louisville KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 70...WW 71...WW 72...WW
73...WW 74...WW 75...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25045.
...Mosier
Read more
5 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...East Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 302308Z - 310145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across parts of
east Texas early this evening. Isolated large hail, severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat will be possible. New weather
watch issuance may eventually be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through north-central Texas, with a very moist airmass located ahead
of the front over much of east Texas. Surface dewpoints within this
moist airmass are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The RAP shows
strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. In addition, the
latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving
into central Texas. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will
increase across east Texas, aiding convective initiation. It
appears that initiation will take place over the next hour. RAP
forecast soundings early this evening in east Texas have 0-6 km
shear of 45 to 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km,
suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercell
development. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. Supercells may also produce severe gusts, and be
accompanied by an isolated tornado threat.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30039488 30019527 30029549 30129597 30439625 30959635
31779628 32159608 32399569 32499496 32379431 32069393
31669377 31129360 30739366 30359388 30139429 30039488
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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