Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more

MD 0310 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75... Valid 302312Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75 continues. SUMMARY...A northeastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a severe-wind and embedded/brief tornado risk across southeastern Lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with an established 70+ kt rear inflow jet and embedded mesovorticies is tracking northeastward across southeastern Lower Michigan at around 50 kt. The DTX VWP indicates 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular to the gust front, which should support continued maintenance of this system. As the strong cold pool continues tracking into lower 60s F dewpoints, around 70 mph wind gusts will remain possible. However, locally stronger gusts up to 80 mph (and a brief tornado) are possible with any line-embedded mesovorticies and in the vicinity of the established rear-inflow jet. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 42088361 42708388 43378452 43608480 43878472 44128405 44108279 43918257 43008231 41968288 41868329 42088361 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0308 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 70... FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Southern Indiana into southwest Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 70... Valid 302235Z - 310030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading eastward across southern Indiana (in Tornado Watch 70) and eventually into Southwest Ohio . A downstream watch will be issued by 23Z. DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS is tracking eastward across central and southern Indiana at around 40 kt. Along the southern portion of the line, an organized line segment is more favorably oriented to around 50 kt of southwesterly deep-layer shear, and this activity has produced severe wind gusts up to 70 mph. Given the organized linear mode, severe gusts upwards of 70-80 mph will be the primary concern. However, some deeper/rotating updrafts embedded in the line, along with isolated/discrete cell development immediately ahead of the line, will be capable of producing hail up to 1.75 inches and a couple tornadoes. With time, these storms will continue eastward into southwest OH, where a continued linear mode should favor primarily severe wind gusts. While severe wind is the primary concern, a couple embedded tornadoes will also be be possible, especially given a stronger low-level jet and larger clockwise curved hodographs (around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) into southwest OH. A downstream watch will be issued by 23Z. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39308704 39878623 40148540 40268380 40108346 39848334 39478339 39148367 39008404 38638703 38698733 38848736 39308704 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0307 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 72... FOR MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 72... Valid 302220Z - 310015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across the mid Mississippi Valley through early to mid evening. Very large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible. Weather watch issuance will eventually be needed to the east of the current watches over parts of central Kentucky and western Tennessee. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Paducah shows several supercells ongoing along a corridor from far northern Arkansas northeastward into southern Illinois. These severe storms are located to the west of an axis of moderate instability where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition, the Paducah WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 55 knots with pronounced directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear profile will be favorable for severe storms, and continued supercell development. The steepest mid-level lapse rates are located over far southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Over the next couple of hours, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will increase in strength over western Tennessee and western Kentucky. This will make low-level shear increasingly favorable for tornadoes, especially as the supercells interact with the low-level jet. Eventually, a nearly continuous line of storms will become organized into a linear MCS. As this line moves eastward into areas near and to the east of the Mississippi River, the wind-damage potential is expected to increase and wind gusts above 70 mph will become likely along and just ahead of the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34999080 35109139 35439175 35859179 36429157 37199062 38348831 38568739 38528603 38358532 38098495 37758493 37418511 36838590 35798807 35248939 35059028 34999080 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more