Severe Storms

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW TYS TO 15 NE TYS TO 30 NE TYS TO 35 WNW HSS TO 25 NNE TRI. WW 4 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070500Z. ..HART..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-029-059-089-155-163-179-070500- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT COCKE GREENE JEFFERSON SEVIER SULLIVAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 4 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 070030Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0073 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Tennessee...Kentucky...and far western Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4... Valid 070228Z - 070330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across portions of eastern TN over the next hour. Hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts exceeding 60 mph, and a tornado or two remain possible. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows two dominant supercells moving ESE near Rutledge and Knoxville, TN. These right moving storms have exhibited rotation in the lowest levels over the past 30-60 minutes, and are located within a buoyancy axis extending southwest to northeast. This is also where stronger southwest flow just above the surface (40-50 kt) continues to be observed via the MRX VWP, yielding 0-1 km SRH of 300-350 m2/s2. This area of both enhanced instability and low level shear should continue to favor supercells for at least another hour, with a threat of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 36028452 36138419 36298390 36508376 36728333 36808315 36808288 36708266 36558262 36248261 36008263 35838280 35698311 35648338 35768403 35858426 36028452 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CSV TO 15 WNW TYS TO 25 N TYS TO 30 NNE TYS TO 45 SE LOZ TO 45 N TRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073 ..HART..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-155-163-179-070340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON SEVIER SULLIVAN WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-070340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0072 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4... FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN into southeast KY and far southwest VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4... Valid 070041Z - 070215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell has gradually matured over the last 1-2 hours to the northeast of Nashville, while other cells continue to develop and intensify near and just north of a surface boundary across southeast KY. Some increase in low-level flow/shear was noted earlier from the KOHX VWP, with short-term guidance suggesting that low-level flow will continue to increase this evening as ongoing convection spreads eastward into eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA. With nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected to be only gradual through the evening, MLCAPE will likely remain in the 500-1000 J/kg range in advance of the ongoing convection, with favorable deep-layer shear continuing to support supercell structures and potentially one or more semi-organized clusters. With only a slow increase in MLCINH expected, ongoing supercells may persist through much of the evening, with some potential tendency toward modest upscale growth with time. While low-level flow remains rather veered, effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will support some tornado threat with any persistent right-moving supercells. Otherwise, isolated large hail will be possible, especially with any left-moving supercells, while damaging wind could accompany any stronger supercells or organized clusters. ..Dean.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440 35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346 37278306 37188239 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CSV TO 45 SSW LOZ TO 35 SSW LOZ TO 25 S LOZ TO 30 SE LOZ TO 30 S JKL. ..EDWARDS..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-095-133-193-070240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL HARLAN LETCHER PERRY TNC001-009-013-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-129-145- 151-155-163-173-179-070240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLOUNT CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN UNION WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-070240- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0004 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 6 22:13:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN...SOUTHERN KY...FAR SOUTHWEST VA...FAR WESTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN...southern KY...far southwest VA...far western NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062210Z - 070015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the early evening, including the potential for a couple of supercells with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong diurnal heating occurred this afternoon from northeast TN into southeast KY, with greater cloudiness and weaker heating noted across the rest of TN. Seasonably rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg near and south of a surface front extending from southeast KY into northwest TN, and area VWPs continue to depict strong deep-layer flow/shear that is conditionally favorable for organized convection. Thus far this afternoon, robust convection has mostly been confined to areas north of the boundary, aided by modest low-level warm advection, though a couple stronger cells have recently developed across far southeast KY, while another cell is gradually becoming better organized east of Clarksville, TN. Coverage of storms into the early evening remains uncertain, with stronger frontal convergence expected across western TN (where cloudiness has persisted), and more nebulous large-scale ascent expected in the short-term across southeast KY and eastern TN, where stronger heating occurred. However, with time, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop and spread eastward into the early evening. Should this occur, a threat for locally damaging wind and hail could evolve with time. Also, while low-level flow is rather modest and veered across the warm sector, low-level shear/SRH is sufficient to support some tornado threat, especially if any right-moving supercells can be sustained into the early evening. While coverage and magnitude of the threat remain somewhat uncertain, watch issuance remains possible if an increase in organized convection appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... MEG... LAT...LON 36578730 36838639 37058540 37288382 37378194 37108145 36528154 35888225 35518307 35448376 35458472 35618597 35698676 35818739 35898781 36198798 36578730 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 6 21:46:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Tennessee and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061921Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Tennessee this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...While synoptic forcing is limited across the area, some vertical ascent is apparent in visible imagery across southeastern Missouri, leading to multiple instances of convective initiation. Deep-layer shear (around 50 knots per mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Long, straight hodographs will also be supportive of storm splits, as evidenced by the initial storm evolution in northwestern Tennessee. The limiting factor to a more robust severe threat is the marginal instability (currently around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Low-level clouds have been persistent across much of western/central Tennessee slowing destabilization across the area. Nevertheless, with some additional clearing/heating, storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity, especially over northern-middle Tennessee later this afternoon and evening, posing an all-hazards severe weather risk. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. ..Jirak/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733 36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693 35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936 Read more