Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more