Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more