Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more