Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW JCT TO 40 ESE JCT TO 45 SSE BWD TO 30 ENE ABI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-035-053-093-097-099-133-143-171-193-221-237-259-265- 281-299-325-333-337-363-367-385-425-429-497-503-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON HOOD JACK KENDALL KERR LAMPASAS LLANO MEDINA MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER REAL SOMERVELL STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE CDS TO 15 E LTS TO 20 E FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC057-065-141-230640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARMON JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 160 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 222230Z - 230600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening from south-central KS southward through western OK into northwest TX. The environment across the region supports the potential for supercells, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. A tornado or two is also possible, along with some strong gusts as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Hutchinson KS to 60 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 159... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-035-053-093-097-099-133-143-171-193-221-237-259-265- 281-299-333-337-363-367-385-425-429-497-503-230640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON HOOD JACK KENDALL KERR LAMPASAS LLANO MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER REAL SOMERVELL STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0523 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...160... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwestern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...160... Valid 230357Z - 230530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159, 160 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts may accompany an organized MCS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS has organized a couple of hours ago, and the KCDS ASOS measured a southeasterly gust of 47 kts within the trailing precipitation region, indicating that a localized severe gust threat may be increasing. This is in agreement with the last several runs of Warn-on-forecast, which has depicted a severe wind swath with this MCS along/near the Red River. Given residual MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and increasing WAA with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, this MCS may persist, perhaps with severe gusts for at least a few more hours. Given the approaching expiration time of the ongoing severe thunderstorm watches, a downstream watch may be needed pending favorable convective trends against increasing MLCINH. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33870160 34440075 34619957 34189851 33549832 33139844 32899918 32939998 33060065 33160093 33420148 33870160 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more