Severe Storms

MD 0518 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222154Z - 222330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A baroclinic boundary/weak surface front continues to slowly sag southward, serving as a local source of lift for deep-moist convection. One multicellular cluster has already developed along the boundary in central IL and produced an instance of 1 inch diameter hail. Through the afternoon a couple more storms could develop. If they do, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 kts of effective bulk shear may support an instance of marginally severe hail/wind. The severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39419221 39799248 40359229 40839119 41089038 41008919 40568875 40068919 39758991 39599079 39479176 39419221 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0160 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma...south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222025Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and severe hail risk to increase through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated and expected to continue to form along the dryline across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the frontal boundary draped across western/central Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this development, the air mass across western Oklahoma into central/eastern Kansas has been suppressed owing to weak forcing and stout MLCIN most of the afternoon. Temperatures are warming, with MLCIN eroding west to east across the Texas Panhandle as temperatures have climbed into the 80s. Aloft sounding analysis indicates, steep lapse rates and ample CAPE above the 850 mb inversion. Thunderstorm activity will gradually shift into this region by late afternoon/evening. A mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind are expected. A watch will likely be needed in the coming hours to cover this risk. ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB... LAT...LON 35509851 34599879 34269925 34209990 34279999 34999994 35729994 36779994 37199980 37939913 38309859 38449818 38439739 38409696 38119653 37569643 37129678 36089793 35509851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended forecast period. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels, fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this time. Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible, uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve. ...Southeastern US... Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0515 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 0515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...the South Carolina and North Carolina Piedmont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221914Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity may continue to gradually develop and strengthen through 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by at least some risk for marginally severe hail and potentially damaging surface gusts. This may remain fairly localized and a severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway, perhaps supported by subtle mid-level cooling on the northwestern periphery of deep-layer ridging centered off the south Atlantic coast. Based on forecast soundings, destabilization for a modestly moist and warming boundary layer remains inhibited by weak high-level lapse rates. However, CAPE within the mixed-phase layer might still be sufficient to support small to marginally severe hail, aided by favorable shear beneath a 40 kt southwesterly jet streak around 500 mb. Lower-level wind fields will remain more modest, but with at least some further boundary-layer destabilization through peak daytime heating, scattered thunderstorm activity will probably continue to intensify. And downward mixing of momentum may lead to a few potentially damaging wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35098137 36287916 36537783 36447688 35667752 34977936 34078076 34028224 35098137 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0514 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN/CNTRL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl/sern LA...srn MS...swrn/cntrl AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221830Z - 222130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm activity and intensity appears probable through 4-6 PM CDT, with short-lived stronger storms posing a risk for locally severe hail and wind gusts. DISCUSSION...As low-amplitude mid-level troughing and more subtle smaller-scale perturbations progress through weak (on the order of 10-20 kt) west-southwesterly mean flow across the Gulf Coast states, associated forcing for ascent appears likely to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development through 21-23Z. Inhibition for moist boundary-layer parcels (with dew points near 70F) is becoming increasingly negligible with continuing insolation, with modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE around 1500-2000+ J/kg. Despite the rather modest to weak low-level and deep-layer shear, thunderstorms are likely to continue to slowly intensify within the destabilizing environment, into and beyond peak daytime heating. Stronger updraft pulses may eventually pose increasing potential to produce severe hail and damaging downbursts. As convection begins to consolidate and become more widespread, this threat should diminish, but strengthening convective outflow may continue to pose potential for gusty/locally damaging winds into early evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 33068817 33028748 31578743 30978923 30369057 30979287 31989295 32309176 31969019 33068817 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Areas affected...southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221917Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail risk to increase through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows the dryline extending across the Texas Panhandle into far eastern New Mexico and southward to the Texas Big Bend as on 19z. Daytime heating under mostly sunny skies has led temperatures to rise into the 80s (some mid to upper 80s further south near the Mexico border). Satellite data shows towering cu, mainly near and adjacent to the higher terrain of the Cap Rock and Stockton Plateau. Morning observed soundings from AMA and LUB would suggest that convective temperatures are around 80-85 F, which in combination with increase in towering cu suggests initiation over the next 1-2 hours. Initial development will likely be supercellular. Though flow aloft and deep layer shear are more marginal, MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for large hail (some very large 2"+) and damaging wind. Where discrete modes can interact with outflow/boundaries enhancing surface vorticity, a tornado could be possible. As storms increase in coverage this afternoon, clustering along outflows will tend to create mixed mode of supercells and multi-cells, with an increase in potential for damaging wind (some 70-80 mph). A watch will be needed to cover these threats soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30330324 30810329 32170307 33380255 33460253 34230188 34610130 34640111 34370061 34050021 33809998 33559982 33259958 32669958 32059983 30800052 29750114 29760201 29730247 29540279 29650307 29910321 30330324 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more