Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the Elevated area across parts of NM. Rainfall has limited the northern and eastern extent of the dry fuels. Additionally, localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Great Basin. Here, fuels are undergoing drying, but are unlikely to support more than isolated risk for fire-weather concerns for now. Otherwise, no changes were made, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 22 17:51:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central Plains to the southern High Plains... Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast aloft across the Plains, with only weak/embedded disturbances within this flow field forecast to shift eastward across the Plains region. Still, with the westerlies aloft maintaining weak lee troughing and potentially a weak low over the southeastern Colorado vicinity, low-level southerlies across the central/southern Plains will maintain a seasonably moist boundary layer. While convection and associated cloud cover ongoing early in the day -- particularly across the central Plains -- may hinder destabilization locally, afternoon insolation should support 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across a fairly broad area. New storm development should occur across the Iowa/Nebraska Kansas area during the afternoon, though location/coverage will likely be modulated by aforementioned/earlier storms and associated outflows. Where ample destabilization occurs, a few clusters of convection capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginal hail can be expected. Greater severe risk -- associated with isolated supercell potential -- remains evident over the southern High Plains area and into the Transpecos region of Texas. Here, a less perturbed airmass should heat/destabilize through the day, ahead of an evolving dryline. With modest but veering flow with height, shear should be sufficient to support mid-level rotation with stronger storms. Large hail and locally damaging gusts will be the main risks with these storms. Some congealing/upscale growth may occur by early evening, as storms spread east-northeastward across parts of western Texas, but overall severe risk should gradually diminish diurnally. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak mid-level vort max is forecast to be moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast region Wednesday afternoon, where a heating/destabilizing airmass is expected. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates should be present across the Georgia/South Carolina vicinity, which will contribute to development of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this area. While flow aloft will remain relatively weak, and thus storms generally rather disorganized, the degree of CAPE should support a few more vigorous updrafts. Along with potential for marginal hail, a relatively deep mixed layer expected to evolve through peak heating could also promote some evaporative enhancement to downdrafts -- possibly yielding locally strong wind gusts from a few of the stronger storms. Convection -- and any ongoing severe risk -- will diminish after sunset. ..Goss.. 04/22/2025 Read more