Severe Storms

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0159 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0159 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 159 SEVERE TSTM TX 222015Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening across much of west Texas, in an increasingly moist and unstable environment. The strongest cells are expected to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Amarillo TX to 35 miles east of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. ...20z Update... The primary change for this forecast update is an inclusion of significant hail/wind areas to portions of western TX into far southwestern OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows developing cumulus across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX and across parts of the southern TX Panhandle. This lends confidence in convective development within the coming hours as anticipated by recent high-res guidance. The combination of low-level moisture return and steep/very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates is supporting lifted indices of -8 to -10 C across the Stockton and eastern Edwards plateaus. This thermodynamic environment, coupled with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, should favor robust supercell development with the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail. Recent WOFS guidance appears to be capturing ongoing convective trends in southwest TX well, and also hints at this potential. Further north, very steep low-level lapse rates should promote downdraft accelerations that may favor isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph. This potential is also hinted in recent WOFS and HRRR solutions. See MCD #516 for additional near-term details regarding western TX. ...Southeast Virginia... Hail/wind risk probabilities are also expanded into far southeast VA downstream of ongoing strong/severe thunderstorms where broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s with an attendant increase in buoyancy. See MCD #515 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the central US, with the main upper jet across the northern states. Mostly clear skies and southerly low-level winds across much of west TX/OK and central KS will help to destabilize the air mass along a developing dryline, leading to afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but dryline circulations will likely lead to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorm development. Relatively slow-moving storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest upscale growth of convection over northwest TX after dark, with some risk of strong/severe storms reaching central TX overnight. ...IA/MO/IL... A weak surface boundary extends across southern IA this morning. The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft lies across this region, with water vapor imagery suggesting a subtle shortwave trough over NE approaching the region. A few thunderstorms are expected to form along the boundary by late afternoon/early evening, with some risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. ...Southeast States... A diffuse surface boundary extends from LA northeastward across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Ample low and mid-level moisture along the boundary will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively weak low-level winds and poor mid-level lapse rates. While a few storms could produce gusty winds, organized severe storm risk appears marginal today. Read more