Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Fri-Sat -- Central/Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains toward the MS Valley this weekend as a deepening upper trough develops over the western U.S. Some lead shortwave impulses will likely migrate through the ridge, and southwesterly flow increases over the central/southern Rockies. At the surface, persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the southern/central Plains, while a daily surface dryline evolves over the High Plains. While some severe potential may occur Friday and Saturday over parts the central/southern Plains, uncertainty remains quite high given several periods of convection leading into Friday, as well as ongoing convection Friday morning, and possible capping concerns beneath the upper ridge both days. This precludes 15 percent probability delineation at this time, but probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as smaller scale details become better resolved. ...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Upper Midwest... A more active severe weather period is possible early next week as the western U.S. trough develops eastward into the Plains and Great Lakes vicinity. The upper trough may begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains as early as Day 6/Sun. However, the timing of this feature may be ill-timed with peak diurnal heating/destabilization such that stronger large-scale ascent and increasing southwesterly flow aloft arrive overnight. Forecast soundings Sunday afternoon suggest capping may limit convection. By Day 7/Mon, a strong midlevel jet streak should overspread portions of the central/southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains, resulting in a sharpening dryline across portions of the Great Plains, and warm front extending across the eastern Dakotas to the Mid-MS Valley. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place across the warm sector and widely scattered severe storms appear possible from Monday afternoon into Monday night. As is typical at longer time frames, forecast guidance differs in exact timing and placement of key features. However, the overall pattern is favorable for an all-hazards severe weather episode, and a 15 percent delineation has been included, though this area may shift over the coming days as details become better resolved. Severe potential may continue into Day 8/Tue across portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains as a shortwave upper trough continues across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada, and a cold front impinges southeastward over portions of the region. Uncertainty increases considerably during this time, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from western Texas and Oklahoma into southern Kansas. ...Southern/Central Plains... The low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will continue across the Plains on Thursday. Some guidance suggests a modest shortwave upper trough will migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday afternoon. This will support weak lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains, and a dryline will likely develop from the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest TX. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary from IA into western KS will slowly sag southward late in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across a broad warm sector, and weak to moderate destabilization is expected across parts of TX/OK and southern KS. Some convection may be ongoing Thursday morning, resulting in uncertainty regarding where better destabilization will occur. Nevertheless, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along the dryline and potentially any outflow boundaries from prior convection, providing a risk for large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will overspread the western CONUS as modest upper ridging builds over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A weak embedded impulse will traverse the Desert Southwest, encouraging stronger surface flow over portions of eastern Arizona into Far West Texas Wednesday afternoon. Over 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Meanwhile, in the western Florida Peninsula, strong daytime heating of a dry boundary layer will encourage RH to dip into the 30-40 percent range. Since southeasterly surface winds may reach 10-15 mph atop dry fuels, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more