Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

MD 0513 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NWRN NE INTO S CNTRL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Areas affected...parts of nwrn NE into s cntrl SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211801Z - 212100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity is beginning to develop this afternoon. Although this is likely to remain weak in intensity, it may still contribute to a few locally strong to briefly severe strength surface gusts by 2-4 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Within larger-scale mid-level troughing spreading across and east of the northern Rockies, it appears that one embedded speed maximum (50+ kt around 500 mb) will continue an east-northeastward propagation from east central Wyoming toward south central South Dakota this afternoon. Despite limited low-level moisture, insolation beneath cold mid-level air (including temperatures cooling below -20C around 500 mb) is contributing to weak destabilization of the boundary layer, which continues to warm and deepen with insolation across the Sand Hills of Nebraska into the high plains south and east of the Black Hills. Deepening high-based convective development is underway, with lightning already noted in activity as far south as the Scottsbluff NE vicinity. This probably will continue, with some additional intensification while spreading eastward through mid to late afternoon. As boundary-layer mixing/deepening progresses, the sub-cloud environment will become increasingly conducive to the downward transfer of momentum associate with the stronger mid-level flow and the negatively buoyant downdrafts, contributing to potential for a few gusts in excess of 50 kt. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44290180 44330078 43749980 42810038 41600227 41460368 43030383 43290285 44150233 44290180 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0512 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTH-CENTRAL TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Areas affected...central/southern Mississippi...central/northern Alabama...south-central Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211728Z - 212000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for gusty winds and hail through the afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across a cold front extending through the southeastern states this morning. Ahead of this feature, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed daytime heating and modest MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg to develop. Flow across this region is fairly weak, though some deep layer shear 20-35 knots is observed in surface objective analysis. As storms move north and eastward this afternoon, potential for a few areas of gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Severe potential appears too limited for watch issuance to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 32359100 34078895 34988766 35488672 35598618 35568570 35518555 35418525 34988505 32058795 30378982 29949059 30199162 30559195 30949207 32359100 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more