Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will be characterized by mainly zonal flow with embedded perturbations across the northern half of the CONUS today. This pattern will support a modest westerly surface wind field across the northern Plains and over portions of the Northeast this afternoon. Given marginally supportive RH over the northern Plains and Northeast, wildfire spread concerns should remain localized, especially wherever dry fuel beds exist. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more