Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0525 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0525 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...South-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161... Valid 230716Z - 230915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and potential for severe gusts will likely continue for a couple more hours. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 may need to be considered. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from Laughlin Air Force Base shows a line of strong thunderstorms, with an intense supercell located at the southern end 60 statute miles to the east of Del Rio. This line is located along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s. This line is near an axis of moderate instability. It is being supported by a shortwave trough that is moving through west-central Texas, evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, RAP analysis has an axis of steep mid-level lapse rates across southwest Texas, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be near 8 C/Km. This, in combination with about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the WSR-88D VWP near Del Rio, will be favorable for supercells associated with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. A wind-damage potential will also exist. Although the severe threat may continue for another hour or two, the storms are expected to gradually weaken as a cap builds across south-central Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 remains uncertain. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29549889 29759951 29599987 29339998 29019997 28109942 27889881 28229819 28719815 29139839 29549889 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 161 SEVERE TSTM TX 230500Z - 231200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A pair of convective lines will continue to progress eastward/southeastward over the next few hours. Some cellular development is possible between these two lines. Strong gusts will be the primary severe risk with these storms tonight, but some large hail is possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 125 miles south of Brownwood TX to 65 miles north northwest of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0524 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... FOR NORTH TEXAS...FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...North Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161... Valid 230632Z - 230830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat may continue for a couple more hours across parts of north Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Frederick, Oklahoma shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms about 25 statute miles to the west of Wichita Falls, Texas. This line is located at the northwestern edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Ahead of the MCS, the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg extending northward from the Texas Hill Country into parts of north Texas. The instability, along with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough over northwest Texas, will help the line to be maintained over the next couple of hours. Downstream of the convection, the 07Z RAP forecast sounding at Wichita Falls has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth shows some directional shear in the boundary layer. This shear environment could be enough to maintain an isolated wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours. However, the longevity of the line may be negatively impacted by a capping inversion that is expected to rebuild over time. Also, outflow associated with the line has surged out ahead of the reflectivity, which could be problematic concerning a longer duration severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33509898 33099897 32859860 32669747 32689682 33049646 33429642 33789666 34029761 34089843 33869885 33509898 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more