Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0907 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...North TX into far southeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301407Z - 301600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A slow-moving bow will continue to move east across the Red River vicinity of southeast OK and northeast TX the next few hours. Sporadic strong gusts may occur in the short term. DISCUSSION...An organized bow extending from south-central OK into north TX this morning will continue to slowly shift east the remainder of the morning. Some occasional intensification with embedded cells, especially on the southern portions of the bow, as been noted over the past hour. A gust to 47 kt was most recently measured in Wise County TX. Downstream from this activity, upper 60s F dewpoints are in place and some filtered heating into far northeast TX is likely to occur, through much of the area will be cloudy with limited heating the next few hours. Nevertheless, 12z RAOB from FWD indicated very steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km above an EML around 700 mb, supporting modest MLCAPE. While severe potential should remain somewhat limited in the short term, a gradual increase in severe potential is expected into midday. Favorable vertical shear will support rotating cells within the line and perhaps developing ahead of the line later today. A new watch will likely be needed by midday, through timing is a bit uncertain given ongoing convection and a slowly destabilizing downstream airmass. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33109828 33789723 34219658 34409574 34459510 34399474 34209459 33349460 32679526 32389609 32219721 32349776 32609813 33109828 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0197 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a mature convective complex over western OK and northwest TX, another decaying convective complex over southern MO, and a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest. Recent surface analysis shows a mesolow associated with western OK/northwest TX MCS over the SPS vicinity, with another, more substantial low back southwest near SNK. An outflow boundary from prior convection extends from south-central OK through southeastern OK before becoming more diffuse and merging with the stationary front over central AR. The ongoing MCS is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day while the Southwest shortwave progresses into the southern High Plains. Farther east, the stationary front that extends from AR into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to begin translating back northward as a warm front. ...North TX/Southern OK into the Arklatex and Mid-South... The well-organized MCS currently tracking across southwest OK and northwest TX is forecast to continue east-northeastward throughout much of the period. The northern portion of this system will likely remain progressive, moving through southern OK and north TX. Damaging gusts and occasional hail will be possible with this system throughout much of its lifecycle. Buoyancy decreases with eastern extent, so the system should begin to lose intensity, but its organized character limits the predictability of where that will occur. Not only that, but downstream destabilization could lead to potential reintensification/redevelopment along the outflow during the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be modest, suggesting reorganization into a severe convective line appears unlikely. The southwestern portion of this MCS is expected to trail behind the more forward-progression portion as it becomes more parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. This orientation would likely keep deep convection out of central/northeast TX before this afternoon. Storm development appears probable across central TX as the surface low and associated dryline shifts eastward ahead of the Southwest shortwave trough. Development is possible ahead of this dryline within the destabilized warm sector over northeast TX as well. Lapse rates will be modest, but ample low-level moisture will still result in moderate to strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Additionally, a belt of stronger low-level flow is anticipated to persist, supporting strong low-level shear and veering low-level hodographs. The conditions support the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Eventual storm clustering could lead to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe threat. ...West TX into Northwest TX/Southwest OK... Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of west TX, in closer proximity to shortwave trough moving across the southern High Plains. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys... Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level moisture advection in the wake of the convective cluster currently moving through southwest MO. Modest buoyancy and shear across the region suggest there is some potential for at least transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone, with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. ...Southern VA/northern NC... Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow winds with the strongest storms. ..Mosier/Jewell.. 04/30/2025 Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0196 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SPS TO 35 S SPS TO 40 ESE SPS TO 30 WSW ADM TO 25 NW ADM TO 10 S OKC. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-077-085-095-099-121-123-127- 301340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA TXC097-147-181-237-277-337-363-429-497-503-301340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOKE FANNIN GRAYSON JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more