Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z Offshore flow within a dry, post-frontal air mass will continue across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Fuels remain particularly dry across a corridor from the Delmarva Peninsula to Connecticut where rainfall was minimized associated with yesterday's cold front. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping 30 percent this afternoon over dry fuels supported addition Elevated highlights. Otherwise, forecast for West Texas and Florida remains on track (see below), with elevated fire weather conditions expected today. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z Offshore flow within a dry, post-frontal air mass will continue across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Fuels remain particularly dry across a corridor from the Delmarva Peninsula to Connecticut where rainfall was minimized associated with yesterday's cold front. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping 30 percent this afternoon over dry fuels supported addition Elevated highlights. Otherwise, forecast for West Texas and Florida remains on track (see below), with elevated fire weather conditions expected today. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z Offshore flow within a dry, post-frontal air mass will continue across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Fuels remain particularly dry across a corridor from the Delmarva Peninsula to Connecticut where rainfall was minimized associated with yesterday's cold front. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping 30 percent this afternoon over dry fuels supported addition Elevated highlights. Otherwise, forecast for West Texas and Florida remains on track (see below), with elevated fire weather conditions expected today. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SMALL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. A few tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 04/30/2025 Read more