Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into Texas. Isolated storms within this zone will likely become capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to dig/expand southeastward, evolving into a sharp/short-wavelength feature extending from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, as a second/sharp trough approaches the West Coast late, the overall pattern over the U.S. will become highly amplified and progressive into the weekend. At the surface, a cold front extending initially from the Great Lakes to Texas will advance steadily eastward. By early Saturday morning, the boundary should extend from New England southwestward to the Lower Mississippi/western Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Great Lakes to the southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across portions of the central and eastern U.S., near and ahead of the aforementioned cold front. The ongoing clouds and precipitation will likely hinder heating/destabilization across parts of the region -- particularly from the Kentucky area northeastward. This, combined with modest shear suggests only isolated stronger storms, but risk appears sufficient to introduce marginal risk ahead of the front, as far north as the Lower Great Lakes. From roughly the Tennessee Valley westward into Texas, a more unstable airmass is expected to evolve, given more substantial low-level moisture, and potentially greater heating. However, widespread convection may be ongoing across the Arkansas area westward to the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region near and just north of the surface front. Evolution of this convection, and progression of associated outflows into the warm sector, will likely influence location, and organization, of subsequent storms through the day Friday. Thus, will maintain/expand MRGL risk across a broader area extending into the Tennessee Valley, with further refinement of the area likely in later outlooks. ..Goss.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern TX into northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301717Z - 301915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across portions of central and eastern Texas early this afternoon. Convective initiation expected in the next 1-2 hours with all severe hazards possible. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted across the discussion area to the southeast of a slowly southeastward progressing line/MCS across North TX. Scattered cloudiness has allowed for stronger heating, with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s F at midday. A very moist airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F resides beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2500 J/kg. This should support robust updrafts. Supercell vertical wind profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards, including a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong), damaging gusts, and isolated hail. Supercells are expected ahead of the oozing line of convection through the afternoon. With time, linear convection may also intensify and surge east. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour or so for parts of the discussion area. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 31769817 32139747 32329582 33009362 32869316 32529311 32089339 31609404 30949523 30519611 30599725 30709781 30919825 31239836 31769817 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more

WW 0197 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAL TO 50 E DAL TO 10 S PRX TO 35 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 N MKO. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-033-051-057-059-061-073-081-083-091-097-099-109-113-127- 131-133-149-301940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL OKC079-089-135-301940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-223-257-315-343-379-387-423-449-459- 467-499-301940- Read more