Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the previous forecast, with no significant areas of fire weather concern expected. See previous outlook discussion below. ..Williams.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic-scale midlevel troughing and related enhanced flow aloft will generally be confined to the eastern half of the CONUS on Thursday. This large-scale pattern will limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions across the CONUS -- mitigating fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more