Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...NRN LA...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN MO...SRN IL AND SRN IN... ...SUMMARY... The risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue into late evening across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, before waning overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable mid-level short wave trough emerging from the Southwest has reached the southern Great Plains and is forecast to pivot northeastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley overnight, downstream of similar amplitude trough digging across the Canadian/U.S. border. The lead perturbation has been preceded by extensive convection the past day or two across the southern Great Plains, which has substantially stabilized the boundary layer across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. The leading edge of the convective outflow has remained a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development. While this boundary may be slowing or gradually stalling south of Longview and Temple TX, 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises are now evident in 00Z surface observations in a corridor across the Shreveport LA, El Dorado and Little Rock AR vicinities, with more modest falls (1-1.5 mb 2-hourly) at Memphis TN and Walnut Ridge AR. Based on this, it appears that the gust front will advance eastward across the Mississippi River through late evening. As it does, it may continue to be accompanied by gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits, but less unstable updraft inflow probably will gradually contribute to weakening convective trends. It does appear that at least a modest surface low is in the process of forming downstream of the lead short wave trough, across southwestern Missouri. As this feature migrates northeastward tonight, models indicate that a belt of 30-35+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, now extending across southeastern Texas through the Mid South, will shift across the lower Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes region. Despite the strengthening wind fields and shear, ongoing thunderstorm development near a surface warm front, east-northeast of St Louis toward the Cincinnati area, is not expected to undergo substantive further intensification, and probably will begin to wane as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of heating, and better low-level moisture return becomes cut off by the progression of the convective outflow to the south. Across Texas, weakening wind fields/shear and forcing for ascent probably will lead to weakening convective trends by late evening, as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 05/01/2025 Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LLQ TO 25 NNE BVX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-043-063-067-079-095-117-147-010140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA DREW INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LINCOLN MONROE PRAIRIE WOODRUFF THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0625 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 199... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 199... Valid 302328Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues. SUMMARY...An eastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts and perhaps an embedded mesovortex tornado or two into this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across central AR at around 30 kt. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented oblique to the gust front, warm/moist inflow, and a gradually strengthening low-level jet, this MCS should maintain its current intensity with eastward extent across the remainder of AR and perhaps into far western TN and northwestern MS. The primary concern will be severe wind gusts (especially with any bowing segments), though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two cannot be ruled out (aided by around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) -- especially in the near-term. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33609228 34919208 35719195 35999162 36119111 36109035 35918980 35238970 33619024 33209085 33259182 33609228 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0626 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 200... FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri Region Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 302330Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado threat exists with small supercells across southeast Missouri region this evening. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across the Ozarks. This feature appears partly responsible for maintaining the northern end of a larger MCS that is propagating across southern MO. Low-level warm advection is focused into this region and scattered small supercells have developed ahead of the primary MCS precip shield from Texas County to Madison County. This activity is lifting northeast toward the southwestern portions of ww200. Latest radar data supports this with with several updrafts exhibiting rotation and marginally severe hail. A brief weak tornado threat is possible with these supercells as they advance downstream. ..Darrow.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37669205 38429075 38008949 37059009 36769164 37669205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0627 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 200... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Illinois into southern Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 302353Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...A locally favorable tornado corridor is evident from parts of southeastern Illinois into southern Indiana in the near-term -- within Tornado Watch 200. DISCUSSION...Several discrete mini supercell structures are evolving along an east/west-oriented warm front from southeast IL into southern IN. Ahead of these storms, the IND VWP is sampling a clockwise-curved hodograph with around 250 m2/s2 0-1km SRH along the front (based on observed storm motion). Given the narrow overlap of this boosted SRH and surface-based instability, a locally favorable tornado corridor is evident in the near-term. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39518875 39458783 39268565 39018559 38758578 38688634 38768757 38918912 39128922 39388904 39518875 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 ..WEINMAN..05/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-045-047-049-051-061-079- 081-083-101-117-119-121-133-135-139-159-163-173-185-189-191- 010140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE INC013-021-027-055-071-083-093-101-105-119-153-167-010140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0202 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0202 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0201 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT TO 35 NW TYR. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT TO 35 NW TYR. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT TO 35 NW TYR. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT TO 35 NW TYR. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ACT TO 35 NW TYR. ..WEINMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-010040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-010040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 198 TORNADO AR LA TX 301805Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana East Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop across the watch area through the afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear and instability will pose a risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Waco TX to 50 miles east of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0627 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 200... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast Illinois into southern Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 200... Valid 302353Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues. SUMMARY...A locally favorable tornado corridor is evident from parts of southeastern Illinois into southern Indiana in the near-term -- within Tornado Watch 200. DISCUSSION...Several discrete mini supercell structures are evolving along an east/west-oriented warm front from southeast IL into southern IN. Ahead of these storms, the IND VWP is sampling a clockwise-curved hodograph with around 250 m2/s2 0-1km SRH along the front (based on observed storm motion). Given the narrow overlap of this boosted SRH and surface-based instability, a locally favorable tornado corridor is evident in the near-term. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39518875 39458783 39268565 39018559 38758578 38688634 38768757 38918912 39128922 39388904 39518875 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0625 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 199... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 199... Valid 302328Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 199 continues. SUMMARY...An eastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts and perhaps an embedded mesovortex tornado or two into this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across central AR at around 30 kt. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented oblique to the gust front, warm/moist inflow, and a gradually strengthening low-level jet, this MCS should maintain its current intensity with eastward extent across the remainder of AR and perhaps into far western TN and northwestern MS. The primary concern will be severe wind gusts (especially with any bowing segments), though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two cannot be ruled out (aided by around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH) -- especially in the near-term. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33609228 34919208 35719195 35999162 36119111 36109035 35918980 35238970 33619024 33209085 33259182 33609228 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more