Severe Storms

WW 0198 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ACT TO 30 NNE CRS TO 30 NW TYR. ..LEITMAN..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 198 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-302140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-085-119-302140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER TXC001-005-027-041-051-073-145-161-185-213-225-289-293-309-313- 331-347-349-365-395-401-403-405-419-455-471-477-302140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BELL Read more

MD 0620 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0620 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...far eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301932Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong gusts are possible through the afternoon into early evening. DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing this afternoon beneath the upper trough from eastern NM. Storms should continue to develop and shift east across the southern TX Panhandle and South Plains vicinity into early evening. Cold temperatures aloft are supporting a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. Despite modest boundary layer moisture (dewpoints generally in the 50s F), the steep lapse rates are supporting weak instability up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Increasing winds with height are resulting in elongated/straight hodographs. This activity is occurring on the edge of stronger effective shear, but at least transient organized, strong cells are expected. Isolated large hail may accompany this activity. Additionally, strong heating and steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic gusty winds. While a watch is not currently anticipated, trends will be monitored for an increasing hail risk over the next couple hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35070201 35020106 34730031 34230004 33880006 33280015 32920047 32800135 32780165 32880259 33090320 33670355 34350338 34710317 35070201 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0199 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0199 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0199 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0199 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening from the southern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley, with the greatest risk expected across the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes are likely. ...20z Update... The primary change for the outlook is to clear severe probabilities behind the line across OK and north TX. The well developed MCS will continue to progress eastward into AR and the MS Valley through tonight. While forward speed have been somewhat slow, a substantial cold pool (as evidenced by a wake low over central OK) should continue to accelerate and pose a risk for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes over the Ozarks and MS Valley into this evening. Across central TX, numerous warm advection storms have developed and should continue to intensify this afternoon. Backed flow along the outflow immediately ahead of the MCS and a broad confluence zone will contribute to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. However, the stronger southward advance of the cold pool will limit storm residence time in the favorable shear zone. Some undercutting may favor continued upscale growth of the line with time. A few supercells are also likely to organize with damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes possible. Farther west, isolated convection ongoing beneath the cold core upper trough should continue to slowly intensify. With cold mid-level temperatures (-15 to -18C at 500 mb) some risk for hail and damaging gusts remains across west TX and eastern NM. Across the Appalachians and Tidewater Region of VA/NC, isolated thunderstorms are ongoing and likely to continue through this afternoon and ahead of a slowly moving cold front. Vertical shear and buoyancy are rather weak, suggesting storm organization will be minimal. While an isolated damaging gust or small hail cannot be ruled out, the coverage of organized severe storms appears to be below 5%. Have removed the MRGL risk from VA/NC and shifted probabilities into eastern KY where vertical shear is slightly more robust. ..Lyons.. 04/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/ ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK/Northwest LA... A large, organized MCS is tracking eastward across southeast OK and northeast TX. The leading edge of the MCS is moving into a very moist environment with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Backed surface winds and a convectively-enhanced corridor of southerly winds in the 1-3km layer (shown in FWD VAD and CAM solutions) are contributing to favorable shear profiles for storm organization and rotation. QLCS spinups along the line will be possible through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a rather weak cap atop a nearly saturated boundary-layer. This would also suggest concern for discrete convective initiation ahead of the line over northeast TX, with tornado risk as well. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be a concern through the afternoon and early evening across the region. ...Southern IL/IN... A surface warm front is lifting northward across southern IL/IN today, with clearing skies and increasing insolation across the area. Most morning model solutions show scattered thunderstorm development near the front, track northeastward toward central IN by evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...West TX into southwest OK... Visible satellite imagery shows decreasing low clouds and increasing destabilization across parts of west TX. This area will likely see widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sufficient CAPE, and favorable deep-layer shear will promote a risk of large hail in the stronger cells. Read more