Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across the central US while weak troughing continues in the northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS through the weekend. As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the need to include areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across the central US while weak troughing continues in the northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS through the weekend. As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the need to include areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across the central US while weak troughing continues in the northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS through the weekend. As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the need to include areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across the central US while weak troughing continues in the northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS through the weekend. As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the need to include areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across the central US while weak troughing continues in the northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS through the weekend. As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the need to include areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will shift southward across the southern US at the start of the extended period, scouring out much of the moisture across the CONUS. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen across the central US while weak troughing continues in the northeast. This pattern will limit severe potential across the CONUS through the weekend. As a surface high across the Plains strengthens and shifts eastward into the Midwest, return flow from the Gulf will bring moisture back in across the central and southern Plains starting D6/Monday. A trough will strengthen across the western US D5/Sunday before ejecting into the Plains sometime D7/Tuesday into D8/Wednesday. This would likely bring a return to chances for severe storms across some portion of the southern and central Plains. There is uncertainty in how far northward moisture return will reach and where exactly surface features will be during this time period. This precludes the need to include areas at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the southern plains into the southeastern and eastern US. Severe storms capable of damaging wind and large hail will be possible across southwestern Texas. ...Discussion... The pattern on D3/Friday will include a trough moving across the Central Plains into the Midwest and a trailing cold front extending from New England southward across the mid-South and into the southern Plains. Early in the period, an MCS may be ongoing across southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This may pose a continued risk of damaging wind from late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday as the air mass ahead of this is progged to be unstable and supportive of continued maintenance south and eastward. Across southwestern Texas, thunderstorm development is likely near the cold front and dryline. The mode here would favor supercells capable of large to very large hail. The cold front is expected to gradually shift southward, which may lead to a transition into a more mixed mode of supercells and multi cell clusters. Nonetheless, potential exists for large hail and damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorm development is likely across the frontal boundary across much of the Southeast to the East Coast. It remains unclear if there is a corridor of more favorable potential for strong to severe storms at this time. A broad plume of instability will extend along and south of the front across this region, but flow remains relatively weak. As such, no areas were included with this outlook but a stronger storm or two could not be ruled out. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

MD 0615 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 195... FOR RED RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Areas affected...Red River Valley and vicinity Concerning...Tornado Watch 195... Valid 300539Z - 300715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms producing hail or locally severe gusts will remain possible across the region, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as the tornado watch expires at 0600Z. DISCUSSION...A large MCS continues to push east across OK, with rear-inflow/confluence bands developing westward along I-40. Meanwhile, sporadic supercells with hail cores persist over northwest TX and along the Red River, near the deeper outflow boundary. Given persistent southerly flow at 850 mb with a moist and unstable air mass, additional severe cells may redevelop within this zone tonight. As such, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed. Otherwise, severe storms continue to develop west of this area inside WW 0195. With time, much of this activity could merge into yet another MCS. ..Jewell.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB... LAT...LON 34399976 34499966 34579940 34609711 34589514 34409454 33839467 33769500 33489701 33509866 33479967 33990006 34399976 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more