Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. Within the base of the trough, moderate-strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass across southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. Sustained westerly surface winds around 20 mph coupled with 10 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds (around 10-15 mph) will develop amid 30 percent RH across parts of southern and central FL during the afternoon -- along the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda High. Given dry/receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/offshore flow is expected across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states today, which may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, a modest pressure gradient and marginal surface winds (around 10-15 mph) should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300740- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0195 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..04/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-300740- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-033-059-079-101-107-115-125-135-151-165-169-173-207-219- 227-253-263-269-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-415-417-431-433-441- 445-447-495-501-300740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD JONES KENT KING LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday, with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates, sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging winds will be possible. Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in this regime would be capable of large to very large hail. ...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma... Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of the D2 period. ..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025 Read more