Aggregator

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181640Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri may pose a hail threat through early afternoon. Confidence in the coverage and duration of this threat is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent over a residual convective outflow across northeast OK/northwest AR has promoted scattered thunderstorms within the past hour. Based on forecast soundings and surface observations, this convection is likely being driven by ascent within the 850-700 mb level on the eastern fringe of an EML. Steep lapse rates above this layer (around 8 C/km) is supporting MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg, and strong flow within the 850-250 mb layer is supportive effective shear values around 50 knots. Consequently, organized convection is possible and may pose a severe hail threat through the next few hours. Weak ascent along the outflow boundary may be insufficient for sustained deep convection despite the favorable convective environment, and stable conditions in place downstream across northern AR/southern MO should limit the spatial extent of the threat. As such, overall coverage, duration, and intensity is uncertain. However, if convection can persist through mid afternoon, additional heating may support a higher potential for sustained/intense storms. Watch issuance is currently not likely, but convective trends will continue to be monitored given the environment. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35089407 35239499 35779567 35999572 36219568 36719447 36709389 36459356 36179327 35929306 35639287 35389299 35269311 35139351 35089407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are expected from the central/southern Plains into the Ozarks on Monday. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... An uncertain and potentially messy convective scenario is apparent across the region on Monday. An upper trough over the southern Rockies will become negatively tilted as it ejects across the central/southern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs, a southwesterly 500 mb jet streak around 70-80 kt will overspread the region. By early evening and into the overnight hours, an 850-700 mb low-level jet will increase to around 45-55 kt. At the surface, a somewhat elongated low will extend from central NE into western KS/OK, with some forecast guidance suggesting a secondary low pressure center developing over northwest OK during late afternoon/early evening. At midday, a dryline will extend southward from central KS into western OK and central TX while a cold front develop east/southwest across NE and western KS. A warm front will extend from southeast NE into northern MO and then eastward into the Lower OH Valley. The warm front is not forecast to move much through the forecast period. Between these surface boundaries, a moisture-rich boundary layer will be in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across a broad zone from eastern KS/OK/TX toward the Mid-South. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will result in strong destabilization by early afternoon, with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg common. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km will be present. Low-level hodographs initially will be somewhat small, but should become enlarged as the low-level jet increases toward evening. Capping is expected to erode by early to mid afternoon across the region. Convective evolution is uncertain. Most guidance develops quite a bit of thunderstorms rather early in the afternoon across portions of the Ozarks where 850 mb warm air advection will be maximized. While initial supercells could be possible, cell interactions and consolidation could result in some upscale development. Regardless, this initial activity will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Additional supercells are likely to develop along the surface dryline from central/eastern KS/OK where strong heating along/to the west of the boundary is expected. Convergence along the dryline is not forecast to be overly strong as low-level flow appears to remain more southerly rather than southeasterly given a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This could result in a messy storm mode due to storm interactions. Nevertheless, strong instability, very steep lapse rates, and a favorably sheared environment will support significant severe storms pose an all-hazards severe risk. With time and an increasing low-level jet, one or more linear bands may develop across eastern KS/OK and move into MO/AR during the nighttime hours. A corridor of greater risk potential is possible somewhere across central/eastern OK/KS but uncertainty remains too great at this time for a categorical outlook upgrade. ...Middle TN into parts of SC... An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the OH/TN Valley and Gulf Coast region, with modest northwesterly flow aloft spreading over the Southeast. Most guidance depicts a remnant MCV migrating through the northwest flow amid a corridor of strong instability. Deep-layer flow will be unidirectional, but speed shear will produce long/straight hodographs, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Modest midlevel lapse rates nearing 7 C/km, and strong surface heating leading to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible as convection develops southeast across the region through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more