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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more