Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more