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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0286 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 18 19:39:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more