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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 18 18:46:02 UTC 2025.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181640Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri may pose a hail threat through early afternoon. Confidence in the coverage and duration of this threat is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent over a residual convective outflow across northeast OK/northwest AR has promoted scattered thunderstorms within the past hour. Based on forecast soundings and surface observations, this convection is likely being driven by ascent within the 850-700 mb level on the eastern fringe of an EML. Steep lapse rates above this layer (around 8 C/km) is supporting MUCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg, and strong flow within the 850-250 mb layer is supportive effective shear values around 50 knots. Consequently, organized convection is possible and may pose a severe hail threat through the next few hours. Weak ascent along the outflow boundary may be insufficient for sustained deep convection despite the favorable convective environment, and stable conditions in place downstream across northern AR/southern MO should limit the spatial extent of the threat. As such, overall coverage, duration, and intensity is uncertain. However, if convection can persist through mid afternoon, additional heating may support a higher potential for sustained/intense storms. Watch issuance is currently not likely, but convective trends will continue to be monitored given the environment. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35089407 35239499 35779567 35999572 36219568 36719447 36709389 36459356 36179327 35929306 35639287 35389299 35269311 35139351 35089407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more