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MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Mississippi into much of central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181454Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk over northern Mississippi may increase in coverage and spread into northern and central Alabama by early afternoon. Damaging winds would be the main risk. DISCUSSION...A small MCS is currently moving across northern MS, with periodic strengthening. Outflow extends southwestward from this system toward the AR/LA border, with only shallow showers there. A moist and unstable air mass exist along and south of the current MCS/cell track. Southwest low-level winds will aid advection out of the southwest during the day as heating occurs, though speeds will not be very strong and as such the instability gradient may not move much. However, strong westerlies aloft are evident on the 12Z soundings, and midlevel lapse rates will support strong/uncapped instability with minimal heating. As such, an increasing severe storm threat is expected from MS into AL, and a watch may eventually be needed. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33998974 34148958 33918671 33458630 32808618 32188657 32438849 33068994 33519023 33998974 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains largely on track. Visible satellite depicts clearing skies across the southern High Plains, supporting robust boundary-layer mixing. Surface observations show evidence of a developing dryline over the TX Panhandle, with 10-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-30 percent RH in the post-dryline environment. Some surface observations across southern New Mexico already depict Critical meteorological conditions (i.e. single-digit RH coinciding with sustained winds well over 20 mph). With continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, these Critical conditions should become common across most of the southern High Plains behind the dryline, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. However, Critical highlights remain only where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire-spread potential. Guidance consensus also still shows the potential for 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-25 percent RH across portions of the California Valley region later this afternoon, where Elevated highlights remain in place. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough progresses from the Four Corners to the southern High Plains, and a surface lee cyclone deepens throughout the morning and afternoon, Critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated across much of southern New Mexico. Further west, mid-level northerly flow on the western side of the trough is expected to bring Elevated fire-weather conditions to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. ...Southern New Mexico... Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline, along with a deepening surface cyclone and associated gradient wind response, will be responsible for widespread Critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 MPH and relative humidity below 10%, along with highly receptive fuels, will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some downslope winds in southern and eastern New Mexico may even locally reach Extremely Critical criteria, with sustained winds exceeding 30 MPH. However, such conditions appear to be too localized for larger highlights at this time. Additionally, the Critical meteorological conditions will exist well into the Texas Panhandle and portions of southern Kansas -- but ERC fuels guidance shows fuels are not quite as receptive, warranting only Elevated highlights. ...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath modest mid-level northerly flow will result in dry and windy conditions across much of the interior California valleys. Winds of 15 MPH and relative humidity at or below 15% are expected. Fuels appear more marginal, but there is some signal for fuel receptiveness, warranting at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/18/2025 Read more