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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/18/2025 Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AUO TO 20 ESE CSG TO 30 SW MCN TO 5 ESE MCN TO 55 ENE MCN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855 ..JEWELL..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC023-053-081-091-093-107-153-167-175-193-197-209-225-235-249- 259-261-271-279-283-289-307-309-315-319-181640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL HOUSTON JOHNSON LAURENS MACON MARION MONTGOMERY PEACH PULASKI SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WEBSTER WHEELER WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AUO TO 20 ESE CSG TO 30 SW MCN TO 5 ESE MCN TO 55 ENE MCN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855 ..JEWELL..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC023-053-081-091-093-107-153-167-175-193-197-209-225-235-249- 259-261-271-279-283-289-307-309-315-319-181640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL HOUSTON JOHNSON LAURENS MACON MARION MONTGOMERY PEACH PULASKI SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WEBSTER WHEELER WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...much of southern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285... Valid 181418Z - 181615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind potential may extend southeast of WW 285, with isolated hail over southern areas. A new watch may be needed downstream soon. DISCUSSION...An organized convective system continues to move rapidly southeastward over west-central GA. This system is near the instability gradient, with extends all the way to the coast. The morning soundings show substantial mid level winds along with good lapse rates aloft and relatively weak low-level winds. This appears favorable for forward propagation and continued damaging wind threat for a few hours. In addition, given that the strongest instability is on the southern periphery of this convective system, at least a gradual increase in storm cores is possible along the south end which may also contain large hail, especially as boundary layer heating occurs. ..Jewell.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30928158 31048208 31468328 32098489 32288508 32498464 32738434 32988418 32268235 31788113 31568096 31198108 30988133 30928158 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 285 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 181215Z - 181700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama North-Central Georgia * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue eastward from eastern Alabama into Georgia this morning. Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) will be the primary severe hazard, but large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorms as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Anniston AL to 45 miles northeast of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE AUO TO 15 NNE CSG TO 35 S ATL TO 50 WSW AGS. ..JEWELL..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-079-145-169-171-199-207-231-263-269-289-293-319- 181540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CRAWFORD HARRIS JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE PIKE TALBOT TAYLOR TWIGGS UPSON WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0854 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284... FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...central Arkansas and northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284... Valid 181156Z - 181400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284 continues. SUMMARY...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms, with a history of producing wind damage, continues to move through central Arkansas. The overall environment should continue to support a severe threat ahead of this MCS through at least mid morning. DISCUSSION...Long-lived linear MCS, with a history of producing wind damage, continues to move east-southeast through much of Arkansas this morning. This MCS is moving along a west-northwest to east-southeast CAPE gradient stretching from northeast Oklahoma into southern Georgia and is following a similar path as to an earlier MCS from last evening into earlier this morning. The overall large-scale environment will continue to support maintenance of this MCS as the MCS has access to MUCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. The organization of the MCS, the overall favorable environment,and knowledge that the earlier MCS traversed a similar environment and is continuing through Alabama supports the severe threat through the morning. A downstream watch may become necessary for portions of far eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi as the MCS approaches the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #284. ..Marsh.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 35469280 34228896 33228915 34329338 35469280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0826 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon... * LOCATIONS... South Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Isolated damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Hart.. 05/18/2025 $$ Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected later today across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...Central/Southern Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the Four Corners with a couple of downstream MCVs moving east-southeast over AR and AL this morning. A 500-mb speed max (60+ kt) is forecast to move through the base of this trough and eject into the TX Panhandle/southwestern KS late this afternoon and evening as the trough evolves into a negative tilt. Rich low-level moisture was observed at both surface sites and raob sites over the southern Great Plains this morning. Increasing moisture at 850 mb was sampled beneath very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates on the Dodge City raob. Southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase today across the southern-central Great Plains as a composite frontal zone/outflow over OK advances northward as a warm front into southern KS later this afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints rising into the 60s across western KS with lower 70s farther south near the OK/KS border and locales southward along/east of the dryline later this afternoon. Model guidance shows the strongest signal for scattered storm development from parts of the central High Plains southeast into southwest KS later this afternoon/evening as large-scale ascent overspreads the destabilizing moist/unstable sector. Confidence is greatest in scattered supercells developing across western/southwest KS later this afternoon as CINH erodes amidst strong boundary layer heating. A very to extremely unstable airmass with long hodographs will rapidly promote supercell evolution with any sustained/maturing updraft. The LLJ is forecast to intensify during the late afternoon/evening and enlarge the hodographs, supporting tornado potential. The combination of shear/buoyancy will become very favorable for intense supercells capable of large to giant hail (potentially 3-4+ inches in diameter) and strong to intense tornadoes, especially from western OK northward into south-central and western KS. It is within a focused corridor on the northern periphery of the richer moisture over parts of south-central and southwest KS where a potent environment and expected higher storm coverage prompted an upgrade to Moderate Risk. Lower storm coverage is expected farther south across western OK, but a similar environment will exist. Similar to previous forecast thinking, it remains uncertain how much convection will develop along the dry line south of I40, especially across TX. However, minimal inhibition warrants concern, as any updrafts that evolve within a strongly sheared and buoyant air mass should produce at least large hail. Farther north, left-exit region of mid-level jet will encourage a secondary corridor of strong/severe thunderstorms from northeast CO into western NE. Surface low is expected to track across eastern CO into western KS which will maintain a moist/upslope component to boundary layer across this portion of the High Plains. Strong low-level warm advection will assist organized convection as it spreads northeast during the overnight hours. ...AR eastward into GA... A pair of MCVs this morning are aiding in a couple of severe thunderstorm clusters being sustained along a residual frontal zone that serves as the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture. Short-term model guidance has varied considerably in the depiction of these MCS. Nonetheless, the 11 UTC BMX raob showed an very unstable airmass (3300 J/kg MUCAPE) and 65-kt 500 mb flow. Current thinking is both MCSs will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts through this morning. ..Smith/Marsh.. 05/18/2025 Read more