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WW 284 SEVERE TSTM AR 180940Z - 181600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central into Central and Eastern Arkansas * Effective this Sunday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A bowing squall line will likely continue east-southeastward this morning across the Watch area. Damaging straight-line gusts are possible and will be the primary hazard with the stronger outflow surges in the thunderstorm band. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Russellville AR to 50 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29050. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible in the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday as a mid-level trough shifts east across the eastern CONUS. It is unclear whether there will be substantial time for destabilization before the surface low/front moves into the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, no probabilities are necessary for Wednesday/D4 at this time. Once this front moves offshore, a more benign period of severe storms appears likely. The cold front will move south near the Gulf Coast and into Florida with mostly sub 60s dewpoints across the Eastern CONUS in its wake. Farther west the front is expected to stall across Texas with low-level flow expected to advect moisture westward to the High Plains on Thursday/D5. Sufficient moisture should be in place by D7/Saturday across the Plains. Therefore, some greater severe weather potential will likely return by next weekend. However, uncertainty currently remains high regarding the amplitude of the mid-level ridging and the location of surface boundaries. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time. Read more

MD 0851 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283... Valid 180815Z - 180915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283 continues. SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of large hail and damaging winds. An extension in time for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283 will be needed. DISCUSSION...A linear MCS has organized across central Oklahoma this morning and will continue to move east/east-southeast along an instability axis stretching from northwest Oklahoma into southeast Arkansas. To the south of this axis, rich low-level moisture couples with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield MUCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg. Effective-layer shear is generally greater than 45-50 knots, which is more than sufficient to maintain updraft organization. In fact, recently the Oklahoma Mesonet station in Okmulgee, OK, measured a 60 mph wind gust. This MCS is currently contained within Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283, which is set to expire at the top of the hour (0900 UTC / 0400 AM CT). Given that the overall environment remains supportive of organized severe weather, and the existing organized MCS, within this environment, the threat for large hail and damaging winds will likely continue past the original expiration time of 0900 UTC (4 AM CT). As such, a local extension in space and time (to 1200 UTC / 7 AM CT) has been coordinated with WFO TSA. ..Marsh.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35179666 36179574 36109350 34649473 35179666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more