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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more