Aggregator

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-081-083-093-095-097- 101-119-135-145-151-155-165-171-175-185-195-182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-065-067-073-075-083-087-093-109-129-137-141-149-151- 153-182240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-182240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123- 135-145-182240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0288 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northwest to west-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181858Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the dryline is expected roughly between 20-22 UTC across northwest to west-central Texas. The convective environment will support supercells capable of large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely as storms begin to develop. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows shallow, but slowly deepening, cumulus along and just ahead of a sharpening dryline as it continues to mix east and boundary-layer depth increases amid filtered diurnal heating. Latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest any lingering MLCIN will be minimized as surface temperatures warm into the 92-95 F range over the next few hours within the warm sector. Regional VWPs show flow within the lowest 2-3 km AGL oriented roughly along the dryline, which should promote adequate residence times for parcels to reach their LFCs and initiate deep convection. Latest high-res solutions suggest this should occur generally between 20-22 UTC. Thunderstorms will mature within a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg and effective shear on the order of 40-50 knots. Limited directional shear will initially promote splitting supercells with an attendant very large hail threat (most probable max hail size may be 2-3 inches in diameter). Southeasterly low-level winds across northwest TX may support adequate low-level veering for some tornado threat. Further south (roughly south of I-20), 1.5 to 2.5 km LCL heights and more backed low-level flow will modulate the initial tornado potential. After 00 UTC a strengthening low-level jet will increase low-level hodograph curvature and support an increasing tornado threat with any remaining discrete right-moving supercells across much of central/northern TX. Watch issuance will likely be needed as thunderstorm initiation becomes more imminent. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 30980132 31340102 32480013 32860000 33250004 33760012 34079996 34279965 34239910 34149872 33989849 33609835 33029840 32379865 31779894 31059956 30879979 30480066 30370100 30450133 30660147 30980132 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0287 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more