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WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CDS TO 20 SSE GCK TO 30 SE GLD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 ..WEINMAN..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-083-095-097-101-119- 135-145-151-155-165-171-185-195-190040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SCOTT STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-065-067-073-075-083-087-093-109-129-137-141-149-151- 153-190040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 287 TORNADO KS OK TX 182040Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Central Kansas Western and Central Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify along a dryline and warm front and spread across the watch area through the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Russell KS to 25 miles south southwest of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865 ..WEINMAN..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-133-143-155-197-207-221-237-253- 275-337-363-367-399-417-425-429-441-447-485-487-497-503- 190040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL HOOD JACK JONES KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 288 TORNADO TX 182130Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central into North-Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to rapidly develop and pose a threat for both a few tornadoes and large to very large hail this afternoon and evening as they move east-northeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. A strong tornado may occur with any persistent supercell this evening as low-level shear increases. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southwest of Brownwood TX to 25 miles north northwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286...WW 287... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 289 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FYV TO 35 SE UNO. ..WEINMAN..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-045-049-063-065-067-071-075-101-115-129-135-137-141- 145-147-190040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE NEWTON POPE SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 289 SEVERE TSTM AR 182155Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A supercell cluster with a history of producing up to 2 inch diameter hail and severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph will likely continue to move east-southeastward across parts of northern Arkansas late this afternoon and into the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Harrison AR to 35 miles east southeast of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286...WW 287...WW 288... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun May 18 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 0861 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0861 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 182142Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Risk of severe wind gusts and large hail will continue spreading eastward into tonight. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell cluster with a history of producing large hail and severe winds gusts is tracking eastward along a warm front draped across northern Arkansas. While this storm is generally right on the boundary, it appears to have access to moderately unstable surface-based air to its immediate south. Low/midlevel warm advection is contributing to upscale growth, and around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per nearby VWP) will favor continued organization/upscale growth into an MCS -- with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail. A watch is likely for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34989119 34969211 35459366 35819429 36219431 36469411 36529373 36449296 36079108 35819074 35279079 34989119 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-133-143-155-197-207-221-237-253- 275-337-363-367-399-417-425-429-441-447-485-487-497-503- 182340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL HOOD JACK JONES KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-081-083-093-095-097- 101-119-135-145-151-155-165-171-175-185-195-182340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-065-067-073-075-083-087-093-109-129-137-141-149-151- 153-182340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ITR TO 25 ESE CYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863 ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-125-182340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123- 135-145-182340- Read more

MD 0860 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME EASTERN PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0860 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...much of western Oklahoma...southwest Kansas...extreme eastern Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 182021Z - 182215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very large hail are forecast from late afternoon into the evening from parts of northwest Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. EF3+ tornadoes may occur. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery clearly outline the unstable warm sector, situated between a dryline from southeast CO into the eastern TX Panhandle, and a warm front/retreating outflow draped across northern OK into south-central KS. The air mass has become very unstable, and will continue to develop northward. This air mass is coincident with an already strongly sheared environment with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. These low-level shear values will increase markedly later today and during the evening as the low level jet increases with effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 common. While very cool air and clouds currently exist over northern OK into south-central KS, a strengthening low-level jet will likely yield clearing later in the evening, which may allow the tornado threat to expand farther eastward. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36550068 37090105 37990176 38200176 38680094 38760012 38589951 38059874 37129807 35549775 34719805 34419924 34559967 34700005 34930029 35840049 36550068 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0859 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...western Nebraska...northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181912Z - 182145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind are likely to develop after 21Z over northeast Colorado, spreading into western Nebraska and northwest Kansas through evening. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen over eastern CO as the shortwave trough moves across the area. Surface analysis shows a prominent plume of low-level moisture extending out of western KS and across northeast CO, where dewpoints are holding in the lower 50s F. Full heating near and south of this moisture plume will erode the minimal capping inversion by around 21Z, and rapid thunderstorm development is expected. The combination of strong instability, steep lapse rates, and veering winds with height will strongly favor supercells capable of very large hail, and a few tornadoes. Activity should easily remain severe into NE and KS this evening as the southeasterly low-level jet persists, maintaining moisture advection as well as shear and inflow. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39239981 38670057 38350123 38330167 38340215 39110277 39420328 39670364 39890412 40260434 40540451 40870437 41320401 41530379 41700344 41680291 41470190 41060094 40019974 39689971 39239981 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-081-083-093-095-097- 101-119-135-145-151-155-165-171-175-185-195-182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-065-067-073-075-083-087-093-109-129-137-141-149-151- 153-182240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-182240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123- 135-145-182240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0288 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northwest to west-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181858Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the dryline is expected roughly between 20-22 UTC across northwest to west-central Texas. The convective environment will support supercells capable of large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely as storms begin to develop. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows shallow, but slowly deepening, cumulus along and just ahead of a sharpening dryline as it continues to mix east and boundary-layer depth increases amid filtered diurnal heating. Latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest any lingering MLCIN will be minimized as surface temperatures warm into the 92-95 F range over the next few hours within the warm sector. Regional VWPs show flow within the lowest 2-3 km AGL oriented roughly along the dryline, which should promote adequate residence times for parcels to reach their LFCs and initiate deep convection. Latest high-res solutions suggest this should occur generally between 20-22 UTC. Thunderstorms will mature within a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg and effective shear on the order of 40-50 knots. Limited directional shear will initially promote splitting supercells with an attendant very large hail threat (most probable max hail size may be 2-3 inches in diameter). Southeasterly low-level winds across northwest TX may support adequate low-level veering for some tornado threat. Further south (roughly south of I-20), 1.5 to 2.5 km LCL heights and more backed low-level flow will modulate the initial tornado potential. After 00 UTC a strengthening low-level jet will increase low-level hodograph curvature and support an increasing tornado threat with any remaining discrete right-moving supercells across much of central/northern TX. Watch issuance will likely be needed as thunderstorm initiation becomes more imminent. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 30980132 31340102 32480013 32860000 33250004 33760012 34079996 34279965 34239910 34149872 33989849 33609835 33029840 32379865 31779894 31059956 30879979 30480066 30370100 30450133 30660147 30980132 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0287 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more