Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression will likely form over the weekend as it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Another active day characterized by an ongoing MCS and remnant downstream MCVs is anticipated on D4/Saturday, with a broad belt of mainly damaging wind potential evident. Seasonably strong mid-level westerlies are expected to remain coincident with rich low-level moisture. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south of pre-existing outflows. This multi-day pattern finally breaks down into D5/Sunday with amplification of a large-scale trough from the southern Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. Mesoscale-focused severe potential may linger into at least D5/Sunday over the southern High Plains to the TX/OK Red River Valley and from the central Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. Otherwise, low-probability severe potential could begin in a portion of the northern Great Plains on D4/Saturday, in association with the amplifying trough. This should subsequently shift eastward and likely broaden across the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early next week. Overall instability appears modest until a potential increase later when stronger flow fields overlap richer low-level moisture. Daily severe probabilities appear to be sub-15 percent at this range, with a relative maximum in the D6-7/Monday-Tuesday timeframe over the Northeast. Current timing of this trough exiting New England by around D8/Wednesday suggests a relative minimum across the CONUS then. Read more

MD 1108 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Areas affected...Central and Northeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 040634Z - 040830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and wind damage may continue over the next few hours across central and northeast Texas. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms is currently ongoing from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward to southeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The southwestern part of the line is near a cold front, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. The very moist airmass is contributing to moderate instability, with a narrow axis of instability axis located just ahead of the front. Near the instability axis, the KGRK WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 Km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, with winds veering from south to west from the surface to 2 km above ground level. This should continue to support an isolated severe threat over the next few hours, as the line move southward across the Texas Hill Country. The primary mode is expected to be linear, which will be favor isolated damaging wind gusts along short bowing segments. Hail will also be possible with the more intense cores embedded in the line. ..Broyles.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31719820 31379935 31219968 30929992 30679993 30429983 30089945 30099876 30389776 31219617 31909526 32499484 32939477 33349498 33469525 33399552 33159581 32489644 31949753 31719820 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. ...Southern High Plains to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... Enhanced zonal mid-level flow within the southern stream will overlap a richly moist and unstable air mass across the southern Great Plains to the TN Valley on Friday. An MCS is expected to be initially ongoing in the OK vicinity at 12Z Friday. Guidance generally suggests that the remnant MCV will track east-northeast across the Mid-South and OH Valley through the period. This should enhance 700-mb winds and support scattered damaging wind swaths downstream through at least Friday evening. Have broadened the 15 percent severe area eastward through much of KY south to northern AL/GA, with still much uncertainty on how far south/east remnant MCS outflow(s) will reach. Farther west across the southern High Plains to OK vicinity, the overall setup from the convective-parameterized guidance appears conditionally more favorable relative to D2. A broader plume of large buoyancy is progged across OK/TX by Friday afternoon. In addition, a northern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to dig into the central Great Plains by Friday evening/night. This would further enhance the belt of mid/upper-level westerlies to its south. A similar evolution of supercells developing off the Raton Mesa vicinity and growing upscale into a nocturnal MCS seems plausible. The primary limiting factor to a categorical upgrade is with the potential impact of the late D2/early D3 MCS on instability and southern extent of convective outflows, which parameterized guidance are notoriously underdone with. In addition, there is potential for that MCS to be more intense/widespread than currently forecast. For now, have opted to maintain a level 2-SLGT, with potential for upgrades in later outlooks as limiting impacts of the early-period MCS are likely better resolved. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more