Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar upper-level pattern to Wednesday is expected on Thursday. Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the West, Plains, and Upper Midwest. Some amplification of a ridge within the south-central U.S. is forecast. The southern Great Basin boundary will lift northward bringing precipitation to more of the central Great Basin. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds remaining in the Southwest, another day of dry and breezy conditions are probable in southeast Arizona into parts of central New Mexico. With another day of drying on Wednesday, it is possible that fire weather concerns will be slightly increased on Thursday. Still, winds will be on the marginal side (mostly around 15 mph). The current expectation is that only locally elevated conditions will occur. As thunderstorms shift northward from Wednesday, some activity will shift into areas that have not had fuel indices reduced by multiple convective days. However, scattered storms are expected with aided lift from the boundary and storm motions are not expected to be fast. This all suggests a primarily wet storm mode and limited lightning ignition risk. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West into the Plains and Upper Midwest today. A shortwave trough will move through the base of the larger trough within the Southwest during the afternoon. A boundary in the southern Great Basin will be a focus for renewed convection during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low today. Wetting rainfall is expected within the Four Corners vicinity. Parts of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico will remain dry. Winds will increase in southeast AZ/southwest NM in response to the shortwave trough. While locally elevated conditions may occur, recent rainfall should reduce potential for a greater threat of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1107 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into southeast OK and southwest AR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 040445Z - 040615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for strong to severe storms will continue into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Strong to potentially severe storms are ongoing late tonight from southeast OK into parts of central/north TX. Across southeast OK, a north-south oriented bowing segment could approach far southwest AR after Midnight, though some eventual weakening is expected as convection moves into a less unstable environment. A localized threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany these storms before they weaken. To the southwest, a line of strong storms with occasional embedded supercell structures is ongoing from near/east of the Metroplex into northern parts of the TX Big Country, with more discrete cells farther south. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but rich low-level moisture continues to support MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Wind profiles will generally remain favorable for organized convection overnight. Favorable low-level shear/SRH on regional VWPs will support localized tornado potential with embedded supercells within the line, and also potentially with the leading discrete cells if they can persist within the weak lapse rate environment. Otherwise, localized severe/damaging gusts will be possible, along with some hail. With time, there is some potential for ongoing storms to spread south of WW 364, and also backbuild to the west. Observational trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need for local watch expansions and/or additional watch issuance. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31650107 31790107 31939914 32499704 34029563 34689527 34799444 34489391 33989409 32999486 31859592 30319757 30209823 30099896 30120027 30090075 31650107 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK... A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity, robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon. With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low. Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid strengthening warm advection. This should result in a forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant greater probabilities. ...Mid-South to New England... A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South, with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies. Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also offer a threat for isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 06/04/2025 Read more