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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern KS/OK into extreme northern TX. A considerable amount of convection has evolved ahead of this feature, just ahead of the synoptic front this is now surging southeast across southeast KS-central OK-TX south Plains. Complex storm modes are noted along the corridor of pre frontal convection, with a mix of a few supercells, clusters, and bowing line segments. Seasonally strong instability has yet to be overturned ahead of this activity with 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE extending as far northeast as the MO Ozarks. 00z sounding from SGF supports this with 2600 J/kg SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. Additionally, lapse rates are not that steep and CINH is negligible, so widespread convection should spread east and southeast ahead of this boundary through this evening. Buoyancy is quite a bit weaker across northern IL into southern WI, but an organized QLCS is propagating northeast into this region. DVN sounding exhibits around 40kt 0-6km shear, so this activity is expected to remain organized for the next several hours despite the poor lapse rates and modest instability. ..Darrow.. 06/04/2025 Read more