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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A broad upper-level trough over the western CONUS on D3/Thursday will shift east into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by D5/Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will build across the West. Medium range guidance suggests potential for a series of on-shoring mid-level troughs and/or cutoff lows thereafter, coupled with a surge of subtropical moisture, into portions of the western Great Basin, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest. This may increase the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across this region by D6/Sunday and beyond, but limited predictability in the evolution of these conditions precludes introducing any highlights at this time. In addition, the amplifying ridge will promote a general warming/drying trend across most areas of the West, acting to increase fuel receptivity. However, generally weak winds beneath the ridge should keep broad fire-weather concerns low into early next week. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more