Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary concern in these areas. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Morning radar loop shows a mature quasi-linear MCS over eastern OK tracking into western AR. This system has produced sporadic severe wind reports overnight, and may continue to pose that risk for a few more hours. Some weakening is expected through late morning, with eventual rejuvenation of storms as they spread across parts of KY/TN and vicinity. Model guidance varies on extent of severe storm coverage. However, favorable westerly flow aloft, dewpoints in the 70s, and pockets of strong daytime heating will encourage intense thunderstorm re-development. ...High Plains... The forecast scenario for today is similar to yesterday, with two areas of focus for severe thunderstorm activity. One is along the CO foothills, where moist/southeasterly low-level winds and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify by mid-late afternoon along the foothills and spread southeastward into the adjacent plains. Forecast soundings show generally straight-line hodographs, which will promote splitting supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Activity may organize upscale during the evening over southwest KS and spread across OK overnight. Farther south, yesterday's and last night's convection has reinforced a surface outflow boundary which will extend across west TX. Similar to yesterday, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. ..Southern New England... A plume of seasonally high PW values extends across the OH Valley into southern New England. Modest air mass destabilization is expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with storms that form along this instability axis. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/06/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061142
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little on the eastern
side of a broad trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a short-lived tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
generally west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico.
Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has formed along the western side of
the elongated trough south of Mexico. Continued gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large MCS may be ongoing across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity on D4/Monday morning. This MCS and attendant flow enhancement with its MCV may support scattered damaging wind potential into the afternoon downstream across the Deep South. How extensive an organized wind threat persists is quite nebulous, given background mid-level westerlies being weaker across the Southeast compared to prior days. Sub-15 percent severe potential remains apparent across the Upper OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes on D4/Monday, shifting east into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States on D5/Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of broad Great Lakes trough should overlap parts of a weak cold front arcing south from a primary surface cyclone over northeast ON to James Bay. Substantial instability ahead of the front appears uncertain with progged weak mid-level lapse rates and muted boundary-layer heating where the stronger flow resides. During D6-8/Wednesday-Friday, guidance continues to signal a reduction in severe potential, as predominantly weak deep-layer shear overlaps areas of moderate to large buoyancy. Read more

Three mosaic viruses coupled combined with ongoing drought stress stunted wheat fields and turned them yellow in an unprecedented largescale outbreak this spring. Wheat in eastern Colorado, southern Nebraska, Kansas, and northern Oklahoma were stricken. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), June 5, 2025

Lake Mead is dropping to its third lowest level in a decade, and poor snowpack in Colorado wasn’t expected to boost the water level much. Lake Mead boat ramps at Hemenway Harbor, Callville Bay, Echo Bay, South Cove and Temple Bar were to be modified to remain useable at lower water levels. SFGate (San Francisco, Calif.), June 5, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NM INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Southern High Plains... A modest MCS has persisted through the early morning, moving from the TX Panhandle into northwest TX. This MCS will likely continue southeastward into more of north TX over the next several hours. The downstream airmass is forecast to become increasingly unstable amid daytime heating, suggesting there is some potential for this system to strengthen once heating commences in earnest. However, vertical shear will remain modest, likely limiting the overall organization and intensity of this system and keeping the severe potential low. A greater severe potential is anticipated in the vicinity of the outflow associated with this early morning MCS. This outflow currently extends from the MCS westward across the TX South Plains into southeast NM. Some continued southward progress of this boundary is likely over the next few hours before it stalls. There is some potential for this boundary to then move back northward as an effective warm front during the late afternoon, but this depends on the coverage of any morning/early afternoon storms to its north. Given the mesoscale nature of that evolution, uncertainty is high on where this boundary will be by this afternoon. Even so, the general expectation is that this outflow will likely serve as the focus for robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow. Strong buoyancy is anticipated across much of this region, particularly south of the outflow boundary where the highest temperatures and dewpoints are anticipated. Southeasterly low-level flow beneath the enhanced westerlies aloft will result in long hodographs with moderate to strong low-level veering. These environmental conditions will be very supportive of discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes. Hail probabilities were increased across far southeast NM into the TX South Plains where the highest supercell coverage is anticipated. There could be a corridor of higher tornado potential along the outflow boundary, but uncertainty on its location precludes introducing any high probabilities with this outlook. A discrete cell or two could also develop north of the outflow along a sharpening lee trough over eastern NM. Buoyancy will be slightly lower than areas farther south, but similar kinematic profiles will still support supercells capable of all severe hazards. ...Central High Plains into KS and OK... A second severe area is possible today from the central High Plains downstream into KS and OK. A subtle shortwave trough is expected to move within the southwesterly flow aloft, contributing to thunderstorm development across the high terrain and its movement off the terrain during the early evening. Northward-advecting low-level moisture will result in a east-west oriented warm front from southeast CO into southern KS. The storms coming off the terrain will likely interact with this boundary, with in-situ development likely along this boundary as well. Environmental conditions favor supercells along this boundary, with the interactions contributing to upscale growth into a larger complex of storms that spreads downstream along the KS/OK. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with any early, more discrete storms before upscale growth and a transition to damaging gusts as the primary hazard. ...Mid MS Valley through the OH Valley into the Northeast... High-PW airmass currently stretches from the Mid MS Valley through the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes/southeast Canada. Scattered convection will readily develop along this corridor, juxtaposed along a weak frontal zone. Poor lapse rates should limit updraft strength and vertical shear will be weak, but some risk for isolated water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts does exist. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/05/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 5 12:52:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 5 12:52:02 UTC 2025.

782
ABPZ20 KNHC 051128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The active severe-weather pattern from the southern High Plains to the Southeast should persist into D4/Sunday. A low-amplitude mid-level trough is progged across the Southeast with a belt of enhanced westerlies. The degree of ongoing convection on Sunday morning lowers confidence on how broad a region of scattered severe-storm potential exists in the Southeast. The best area for less-impactful morning convection appears to be across the South Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent eastern Piedmont. Scattered damaging winds should be the main hazard from afternoon storms in this region. With a brief respite in the wake of multiple MCSs on D1 to early D3, buoyancy should become large to locally extreme across a portion of the southern High Plains to OK/TX Red River Valley by Sunday afternoon. Latest guidance is quite insistent on more widespread convective development during the late afternoon into Sunday night, along the persistent quasi-stationary front. Although mid/upper-level winds may be weaker relative to prior days, an increased west-northwesterly component along with the very unstable airmass will support severe hail/wind, which could be significant. Guidance has shown less predictability in the D5-6/Monday-Tuesday time frame. This seems related to handling of downstream MCV evolution from the probable Sunday night MCS over OK/TX, as well as individual shortwave impulses embedded within the broad upper trough over the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes. Expansive swaths of low-probability severe are evident across the southern to eastern states but predictability is too low for any 15 percent highlights. By mid-week, guidance is still signaling a reduction in overall severe potential with a synoptic pattern change to predominantly weak shear coincident with areas of moderate to large buoyancy. Read more

The Washington Department of Ecology expanded the drought emergency declared in April to include areas in the North and Central Cascade Mountains and parts of the Puget Sound area. On April 8, Ecology declared drought for the Yakima Basin watersheds, while issuing a drought advisory for Puget Sound region and portions of the Central and North Cascades. The areas served by Seattle, Tacoma and Everett water utilities remain under drought advisory. In nearly two months since the declaration, conditions in Whatcom and Skagit counties, and portions of Snohomish, King, Pierce, Lewis, Thurston, Okanagan, Chelan, Clallam, Jefferson and Ferry counties have worsened due to early and rapid snowmelt, combined with unusually dry April and May weather. The warm April led to rapid snowmelt which will mean less water will be available in summer and early fall when it is most needed for farms and fish. Department of Ecology, State of Washington, June 5, 2025 Washington’s drought emergency was extended for a third year, affecting Kittitas, Yakima, and part of Benton counties. A drought advisory was issued for north-central Washington and parts of the Puget Sound region, encompassing Pierce, King, Snohomish, Skagit, Whatcom, Okanogan and Chelan counties. Washington Department of Ecology, April 8, 2025

Avista has applied temporary changes to power line operations in its Washington and Idaho service areas in response to dry summer conditions and the elevated wildfire danger in the area. GlobeNewswire (Los Angeles, Calif.), June 3, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern Texas. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing that currently extends across much of the western and central CONUS is forecast to remain in place throughout the day. Western periphery of expansive subtropical ridging will remain over the East Coast as well. Despite little change in the large-scale upper pattern, multiple shortwave troughs progressing within these larger features will contribute to convectively active day, with thunderstorms anticipated from the southern Great Basin and Southwest into the High Plains as well as from Lower MI into east/southeast TX. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, and the Southeast and Florida as well. ...Southern Rockies into the southern High Plains... The showers and isolated thunderstorm ongoing across the region are expected to continue northeastward while weakening over the next several hours. Much of this region is currently under a cool and dry post-frontal regime, but southerly flow should return this afternoon, contributing to quick airmass modification ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the Southwest states. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave from the Four Corners eastward into the southern High Plains. The strongest storms are expected during the late afternoon/early evening across east-central NM, where the leading edge of the better low-level moisture return interacts with storms moving off the higher terrain of central NM ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through this region as well, resulting in environmental conditions supportive of supercells. Large hail is favored initially, but high cloud bases and strong outflow will likely result in a transition to a more linear/bowing mode tonight. Despite nocturnal cooling and resultant low-level stabilization, some strong gusts are still possible as these storms continue into the western TX Panhandle this evening and tonight. A low-probability tornado threat exists as these storms move towards the TX Panhandle, where better low-level moisture and stronger southeasterly winds are possible. However, the anticipated linear storm mode and stabilizing nocturnal cooling should keep the tornado threat low. ...Lower MI southward through the OH Valley and Ozarks into East TX... A weakening cold front currently extends from northern Lower MI into central TX. Much of this front is expected to make modest eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, before becoming increasingly stationary tonight. A moist airmass precedes this front, and afternoon dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s will support moderate buoyancy and scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Moderate 0-6 km (i.e. 30-35 kt) shear suggests a few robust storms could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds. Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when buoyancy is maximized. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 4 12:46:02 UTC 2025.