Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the High Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front moves southward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast by afternoon from Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into northern Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development will likely take place along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the region, suggesting that storms should become organized. Supercells and short intense line segments will be possible, with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the central states on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and western Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along and near much of the instability axis, suggesting that a severe threat will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of the trough and its associated cold front, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be most likely from parts of southern New England southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic. Deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty due to the issues of frontal timing and instability magnitude. From Friday into Saturday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Although a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across the north-central U.S., large scale ascent should be weak across most of the region. For this reason, predictability is low concerning any potential severe threat. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 05:50:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 09:01:46 GMT

MD 1282 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of western into central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413... Valid 140708Z - 140915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413 continues. SUMMARY...There appears potential for merging outflow to support an increase in thunderstorm development and intensity, east of Garden City and north of Dodge City between 3-5 AM CDT. This could be accompanied by a continuing risk for strong to severe surface gusts through daybreak, and it is possible a new severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...The south-southeastward propagating cluster out of northeast Colorado and southwestern Nebraska still appears accompanied by a notable surface cold pool, including 2-hourly surface pressure rises near or in excess of 4 mb, while 2-hourly rises near 3 mb have been observed with the smaller eastward propagating cluster to the south. Both clusters are being maintained by modestly strong low-level inflow of unstable air, with the southern cluster supported by better low-level moisture and potential instability, along a remnant baroclinic zone beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. A meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation has also recently been evident with the southern cluster, accompanied by strong westerly rear inflow in excess of 50-60 kt around 9-10 thousand feet AGL. The more vigorous convective development with the northern convective cluster has been contracting in size, and the influence of the increased mid-level inhibition with continued gradual boundary-layer cooling remains unclear. However, a gust to 49 kt has recently been observed at Goodland, along the southward advancing gust front, which may overtake the southern cluster east of Garden City/north of Dodge City between 08-10Z. It is possible that this could contribute to the re-intensification of convection, with a tendency to propagate east-southeastward along the baroclinic zone, near/north of Dodge City and Medicine Lodge, toward the Hutchinson/Wichita vicinities through daybreak. Despite being embedded within generally light westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10 kt, thermodynamic profiles characterized by seasonably high boundary layer moisture content and steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain conducive to continuing strong surface cold pool development with potential for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37940164 38310159 38920187 39180161 39280075 39639989 38859851 37779801 37179953 37770086 37940164 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 05:50:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 03:22:08 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila has become better organized early this morning, with the latest satellite images showing well defined convective banding around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 knots and T3.0/45 knots. Objective estimates ranged from 34 to 43 knots, while a recent ASCAT pass showed several wind barbs close to 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data and taking into account the potential for some under-sampling in ASCAT, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 knots. Dalila is heading toward the northwest, or 305/10 knots. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as the system moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through dissipation Monday night, and this may be generous as Dalila may not survive that long. The track forecast lies nearly on top of the previous track and is in close agreement with the latest consensus guidance. There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain over warm water and light to moderate effective easterly shear today. The forecast calls for some strengthening today, and the peak intensity was nudged slightly higher to better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beginning tonight the system will cross the 26C isotherm and over progressively cooler water, and this is expected to begin the weakening phase with Dalila forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and possibly sooner than that. The latest intensity forecast close to the middle of the intensity guidance envelope through the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 979 WTPZ34 KNHC 140847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.9W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.9 West. Dalila is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today. A gradual turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some additional strengthening is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through Monday morning, with localized amounts up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Beven

...DALILA STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Jun 14 the center of Dalila was located near 15.9, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 874 FOPZ14 KNHC 140848 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 34 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 18(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 501 WTPZ24 KNHC 140845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 330SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.9W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/BEVEN

...DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 09:00 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 15.9, -103.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GLD TO 50 E GLD TO 40 NNE HLC. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF WW 413. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A NEW WW IS NEEDED PRIOR TO 09Z AND REMAINING VALID PORTION OF 413 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14/09Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282. ..KERR..06/14/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 413 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC063-065-109-137-147-163-179-199-140900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS ROOKS SHERIDAN WALLACE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 413 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 140235Z - 140900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Kansas Southwest into West-Central Nebraska * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 935 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will gradually move east into a more moist and unstable airmass across portions of the central High Plains. Severe gusts associated with thunderstorm outflow will be the primary severe hazard with this activity tonight, but isolated large hail may accompany the stronger updrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of North Platte NE to 65 miles southwest of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 411...WW 412... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Great Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level ridge will remain in place on Monday from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the northern Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is likely to initiate near the front as surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase during the day. These storms are forecast to move east-southeastward into the strong instability during the afternoon. 21Z NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail, mainly early in the event. Mid-level flow is forecast to be nearly parallel to the boundary, suggesting that a gradual transition to linear mode could take place during the late afternoon and early evening. Linear mode would be more favorable for a wind-damage threat. The severe threat should gradually move into the mid Missouri Valley during the evening, where low-level flow is forecast to increase. Further south into parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas and northern Oklahoma, isolated convective initiation should take place as surface temperatures warm during the day, along zones of maximized low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist airmass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. However, any convection that initiates will have to overcome layer of warm air around 800 mb. This should keep any threat marginal during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Great Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level ridge will remain in place on Monday from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the northern Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is likely to initiate near the front as surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase during the day. These storms are forecast to move east-southeastward into the strong instability during the afternoon. 21Z NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail, mainly early in the event. Mid-level flow is forecast to be nearly parallel to the boundary, suggesting that a gradual transition to linear mode could take place during the late afternoon and early evening. Linear mode would be more favorable for a wind-damage threat. The severe threat should gradually move into the mid Missouri Valley during the evening, where low-level flow is forecast to increase. Further south into parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas and northern Oklahoma, isolated convective initiation should take place as surface temperatures warm during the day, along zones of maximized low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist airmass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. However, any convection that initiates will have to overcome layer of warm air around 800 mb. This should keep any threat marginal during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Great Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level ridge will remain in place on Monday from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the northern Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is likely to initiate near the front as surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase during the day. These storms are forecast to move east-southeastward into the strong instability during the afternoon. 21Z NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail, mainly early in the event. Mid-level flow is forecast to be nearly parallel to the boundary, suggesting that a gradual transition to linear mode could take place during the late afternoon and early evening. Linear mode would be more favorable for a wind-damage threat. The severe threat should gradually move into the mid Missouri Valley during the evening, where low-level flow is forecast to increase. Further south into parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas and northern Oklahoma, isolated convective initiation should take place as surface temperatures warm during the day, along zones of maximized low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist airmass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. However, any convection that initiates will have to overcome layer of warm air around 800 mb. This should keep any threat marginal during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Great Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level ridge will remain in place on Monday from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the northern Plains. South of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to the development of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convection is likely to initiate near the front as surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase during the day. These storms are forecast to move east-southeastward into the strong instability during the afternoon. 21Z NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail, mainly early in the event. Mid-level flow is forecast to be nearly parallel to the boundary, suggesting that a gradual transition to linear mode could take place during the late afternoon and early evening. Linear mode would be more favorable for a wind-damage threat. The severe threat should gradually move into the mid Missouri Valley during the evening, where low-level flow is forecast to increase. Further south into parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas and northern Oklahoma, isolated convective initiation should take place as surface temperatures warm during the day, along zones of maximized low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist airmass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. However, any convection that initiates will have to overcome layer of warm air around 800 mb. This should keep any threat marginal during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 06/14/2025 Read more