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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Synopsis... A belt of mid-level westerly flow will move across the central/high Plains on D3/Monday, dampening ridge heights and creating a more of a zonal flow regime. A surface low will deepen across eastern Colorado, with a southwest to northeast oriented cold front shifting south and eastward across Nebraska through the period. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest.. Convection is likely to be ongoing across portions of North Dakota/Minnesota. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the aforementioned cold front in Nebraska/southern Dakotas by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggest there will be MLCIN in place across some portion of the central plains, weakening with northward extent into central Nebraska. Forcing for ascent is along expected to be greatest in the region from central Nebraska into southern South Dakota with the advancing wave and cold front, which should aid eroding of remaining CIN. Deep layer shear largely parallel to the cold front should encourage linear modes, with potential for damaging wind given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should advance eastward along the front into portions of the Upper Mid-west through time. More isolated development may be possible across portions of the central Plains, though warmer 850 mb temperatures and stronger MLCIN beneath higher heights will keep the overall severe threat more marginal. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist air mass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Synopsis... A belt of mid-level westerly flow will move across the central/high Plains on D3/Monday, dampening ridge heights and creating a more of a zonal flow regime. A surface low will deepen across eastern Colorado, with a southwest to northeast oriented cold front shifting south and eastward across Nebraska through the period. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest.. Convection is likely to be ongoing across portions of North Dakota/Minnesota. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the aforementioned cold front in Nebraska/southern Dakotas by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggest there will be MLCIN in place across some portion of the central plains, weakening with northward extent into central Nebraska. Forcing for ascent is along expected to be greatest in the region from central Nebraska into southern South Dakota with the advancing wave and cold front, which should aid eroding of remaining CIN. Deep layer shear largely parallel to the cold front should encourage linear modes, with potential for damaging wind given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should advance eastward along the front into portions of the Upper Mid-west through time. More isolated development may be possible across portions of the central Plains, though warmer 850 mb temperatures and stronger MLCIN beneath higher heights will keep the overall severe threat more marginal. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist air mass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with isolated large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the northern High Plains east-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Synopsis... A belt of mid-level westerly flow will move across the central/high Plains on D3/Monday, dampening ridge heights and creating a more of a zonal flow regime. A surface low will deepen across eastern Colorado, with a southwest to northeast oriented cold front shifting south and eastward across Nebraska through the period. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest.. Convection is likely to be ongoing across portions of North Dakota/Minnesota. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the aforementioned cold front in Nebraska/southern Dakotas by Monday afternoon. Guidance suggest there will be MLCIN in place across some portion of the central plains, weakening with northward extent into central Nebraska. Forcing for ascent is along expected to be greatest in the region from central Nebraska into southern South Dakota with the advancing wave and cold front, which should aid eroding of remaining CIN. Deep layer shear largely parallel to the cold front should encourage linear modes, with potential for damaging wind given steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should advance eastward along the front into portions of the Upper Mid-west through time. More isolated development may be possible across portions of the central Plains, though warmer 850 mb temperatures and stronger MLCIN beneath higher heights will keep the overall severe threat more marginal. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place over much of the moist air mass. This should support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2025 Read more

MD 1285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Virginia...central/southeast Virginia...far northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141746Z - 141945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and pose some risk of damaging winds as they move east off the Blue Ridge. A watch is not currently expected given the loosely organized convection. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show deepening cumulus clouds developing within the Blue Ridge. This is in response to a weak mid-level trough upstream in the Mid-South. This trend is expected to continue given the very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and uncapped airmass. Temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s F in southern Virginia and low-level lapse rates will support a few stronger/potentially damaging wind gusts with activity as it moves eastward. Given the weakening trough to the west, deep-layer shear will be modest and storms will only be loosely organized. Furthermore, weak mid-level lapse rates, sampled by regional 12Z soundings, will also temper storm intensity. Some guidance has suggested small-scale clustering may occur. This could lead to a locally greater threat for wind damage. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36197950 36038117 36288113 37518059 37908021 38137817 37987733 37557702 37127692 36727715 36587751 36197950 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more