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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... On Day 3/Monday, a midlevel shortwave trough and related strong midlevel westerly flow will track eastward across the Great Basin during peak heating. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to critical fire-weather conditions from southern NV into southern UT. Thereafter, the midlevel shortwave trough and strong flow aloft will continue eastward across the Southwest on Day 4/Tuesday. Given a warm/dry air mass and increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern AZ and western/central NM. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... Deep-layer southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the Great Basin ahead of an evolving large-scale trough. As these strong winds overspread a deeply mixed air mass each afternoon, an expansive area of elevated to critical fire-weather can be expected. As the midlevel trough advances eastward across the Intermountain West into the weekend, strong northerly winds will overspread CA, supporting increasing fire-weather concerns over areas of receptive fuels. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed during this time frame as the overall timing/evolution of the large-scale trough becomes more clear. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0414 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 414 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 142040Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few thunderstorm clusters, and potentially a couple of supercells, are expected to form and spread eastward from eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and adjacent parts of far southwest South Dakota and northeast Colorado through late evening. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Gillette WY to 60 miles southwest of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 20:35:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 20:35:10 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 20:35:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 20:35:10 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 20:35:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jun 2025 20:35:10 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 319 FOPZ14 KNHC 142033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/KELLY

...DALILA CONTINUES TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Sat Jun 14 the center of Dalila was located near 16.8, -105.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 584 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Dalila, with cold cloud tops near -80 C and a well-defined convective band shown in satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds near 55 kt, which prompted an increase in the estimated intensity to 55 kt during the intermediate advisory. Since then, the convective structure has remained steady, and with both objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates continuing to support this intensity, thus, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated at 300/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest into tonight, then begin turning toward the west by Sunday as the mid- to upper-level ridge continues to strengthen to the north. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and is similar to the previous NHC forecast. Dalila has likely reached its peak intensity and the storm may maintain its current strength for a few more hours. By Sunday, the storm will begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment, which will initiate a weakening trend. The system is forecast to become a remnant low in 48 hours, then dissipate into an open trough in 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly