Aggregator

315
ABPZ20 KNHC 150533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate multiple surface
circulations associated with a tropical wave located offshore of the
Pacific coast of Costa Rica. The system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150533
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate multiple surface
circulations associated with a tropical wave located offshore of the
Pacific coast of Costa Rica. The system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SHR TO 35 NW MLS TO 25 WNW 3HT. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-027-033-045-055-069-075-079-150440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FERGUS GARFIELD JUDITH BASIN MCCONE PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SHR TO 35 NW MLS TO 25 WNW 3HT. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-027-033-045-055-069-075-079-150440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FERGUS GARFIELD JUDITH BASIN MCCONE PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1293 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OK AND FAR SOUTHERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...West-central into northern OK and far southern KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415... Valid 150211Z - 150345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415 continues. SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase with time, with a continued severe threat. The greatest short-term supercell potential resides across parts of west-central OK. DISCUSSION...A relatively long-lived supercell (with a history of producing 2+ inch diameter hail) has shown some signs of weakening across Caddo County, OK, but additional cells are intensifying to its west. Strong to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support short-term supercell potential across parts of western OK. Large to very large hail and localized severe gusts remain possible with the supercells in this area. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the remnant outflow boundary will also support some tornado potential for as long as surface-based supercells can be sustained. Farther northeast, storms have recently developed across north-central OK. Storm coverage is expected to further increase with time, aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet (as observed in recent VWPs from KTLX). Convection to the cool side of the remnant outflow may tend to remain slightly elevated, but buoyancy and shear are sufficient to support organized convection across the region into late tonight. WW 415 has been locally expanded to address the severe threat across north-central OK. Trends will be monitored regarding the need for additional watch issuance beyond the 04Z expiration time of WW 415. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34929959 35979957 36659834 36949781 37129751 37139659 36479647 35849638 35269693 34849834 34929959 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:05:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 03:22:26 GMT