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Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued westward motion the next couple of days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán today, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.2, -107.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 14:35:47 GMT

...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.2, -107.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued westward motion the next couple of days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán today, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila's satellite appearance has degraded since the previous advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8 kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the consensus aids. The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and the system dissipating in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 151434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 151434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 150SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west will occur later today, with a continued westward motion the next couple of days Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán today, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DALILA WEAKENING WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.2, -107.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... As of 15:00 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 18.2, -107.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 150SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY NNNN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

082
ABPZ20 KNHC 151143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Guatemala, Costa Rica and adjacent offshore waters.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of
this week while moving westward to west-northwestward just offshore
of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci