Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 11:41:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT

Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151141 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 107.4W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for coastal southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease later today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of southwestern Mexico this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... As of 5:00 AM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.1, -107.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

MD 1298 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417... FOR CENTRAL INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...central into western/southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417... Valid 150946Z - 151145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417 continues. SUMMARY...Some risk for strong to severe gusts and severe hail probably will continue beyond daybreak with thunderstorms developing into and across parts of western through southern Oklahoma. However, it is not clear that an additional severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Within a generally weak large-scale flow regime, convectively augmented mid-level troughing continues to slowly dig south-southeastward across parts of southeastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Aided by persistent vigorous thunderstorm development, supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection above the western flank of a composite outflow, the outflow has been slowly spreading west-southwestward across the Interstate 35 corridor of north central Oklahoma. This is likely to continue into western/southwestern Oklahoma through and beyond daybreak. As the nocturnal low-level jet weakens, forcing to overcome mid-level inhibition and maintain convective development in the presence of moderate potential instability remains unclear. It is possible that lift along an intersecting outflow emerging the Texas Panhandle could maintain a corridor of vigorous thunderstorm development, but this is not certain based on model output. Regardless, barring more substantive cold pool strengthening with the Texas Panhandle cluster than currently appears probable, there is little to suggest potential for a substantive increase in severe weather into mid morning. However, a couple of locally strong to severe gusts remain possible, along with some continuing risk for severe hail in stronger cells. ..Kerr.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36430004 36139857 35279811 34699680 33919690 34479924 35570028 36430004 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...the eastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150856Z - 151100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong to severe surface gusts may continue another couple of hours with a small developing cluster of storms propagating through the eastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of western Oklahoma. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but there appears at least some potential for a larger thunderstorm cluster to evolve, and trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...A sustained south-southeastward propagating cell appears to be undergoing at least some intensification across the Oklahoma into Texas Panhandle vicinity, with a small strengthening surface cold pool and rear inflow evident, which recently produced a gust to 45 kt at Guymon OK. Based on objective instability analyses and forecast soundings, the support for the recent intensification is a bit unclear. However, forcing for ascent accompanying convergence and warm advection, near the nose of the low-level jet associated with nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling (southwesterly up to 40 kt between the surface and 1 km AGL) may be a contributor. This low-level jet is probably now past peak intensity and should begin to weaken through daybreak, but it is possible that the strengthening cold pool may maintain the southeastward propagation of vigorous thunderstorm development, with perhaps potential for some further upscale growth. Taking into account sizable lower/mid-tropospheric temperature/dew point spreads, most unstable CAPE might still be in excess of 2000 J/kg across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, in the presence of light (on the order of 10-15 kt), but modestly sheared northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36180118 36410079 35719950 34929967 34570093 35360172 35760144 36180118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE AVK TO 35 NNW OKC TO 15 E OKC TO 45 S CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 417 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-051-063-073-087-093-109-125-149-153- 151100- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER MCCLAIN MAJOR OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE AVK TO 35 NNW OKC TO 15 E OKC TO 45 S CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 417 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-051-063-073-087-093-109-125-149-153- 151100- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER MCCLAIN MAJOR OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 417 SEVERE TSTM OK 150310Z - 151100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1010 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorm clusters are forecast to develop and persist into the overnight across the northern half of the Watch. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. A consolidation of thunderstorm outflow and thunderstorms merging into a larger cluster may occur tonight and move generally south. Severe gusts may become the primary hazard during this evolution, but isolated large hail could accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Muskogee OK to 25 miles north northwest of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AVK TO 30 N OKC TO 45 S CQB. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-051-063-073-087-093-109-125-149-153- 151040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER MCCLAIN MAJOR OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more