Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms offshore Central America. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of this week while moving westward to west-northwestward just
offshore of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1299 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151514Z - 151715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe gusts may persist over the next couple hours before storms weaken. DISCUSSION...A cold pool driven bowing segment continues southward across portions of north-central Texas this morning, with occasional gusts 50-60 mph. Radar velocity continues to indicate strong to severe winds 50-60 kts around 2-5 kft above the ground. Recent reports around 60 mph were noted in Knox County Texas. This line continues to move within a region of strengthening MLCIN across central Texas and is generally expected to weaken through time. As such, a watch will not likely be needed. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33310014 33429988 33399896 33709848 33859828 33849798 33709782 33479774 32719752 32329758 32219787 32019917 32069955 32139979 32199990 32270000 33310014 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 06/15/2025 Read more