Aggregator

...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 21:00 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 18.2, -108.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila's convection has collapsed, leaving behind a single fragmented band of thunderstorms. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have lowered this cycle and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt based on a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Dalila is expected to continue weakening as the storm moves over cooler waters and into a hostile environment. The NHC intensity forecast predicts Dalila to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt and should continue gradually turning westward in the low-level flow. A more westward motion is expected in the next day or two until the system dissipates in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.2N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 18.3N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1800Z 18.3N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0418 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0418 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...20z Update... 5% hail/wind risk probabilities were reduced across portions of central TX in the wake of a decaying MCS. Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours have largely been sampling 30-55 mph winds with the convective band with further weakening expected as it becomes increasingly displaced from stronger mid-level flow. However, a few strong/severe storms remain possible as the MCS collides with a northward-propagating sea breeze boundary across eastern TX this afternoon and migrates into a very buoyant (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) air mass in place across south-central TX. A slight expansion of 2% tornado probabilities was made across south-central SD where shallow cumulus is beginning to develop within a diffuse warm frontal zone where temperatures are quickly warming into the upper 80s and low 90s. A few recent CAM solutions (most notably the RRFS) suggest a supercell or two may develop within this weakly forced regime between 22-02 UTC. If this occurs, the environment will support organized supercells with some tornado risk (in addition to the potential for large hail/severe wind). Given the recent observed trends, and the HRRR's tendency to struggle to initiate convection in such weakly forced regimes, some expansion of tornado risk probabilities appears warranted. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track as outlined in the previous discussion (below). See MCD #1302 for additional short-term details pertaining to the Enhanced risk across MT. ..Moore.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...MT to SD/NE through tonight... Moderate buoyancy is expected again this afternoon along and south of a an outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough (now over WA/OR) that will crest the ridge over MT this evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the zone of ascent along the baroclinic zone and in advance of the midlevel trough, in concert with the diurnal heating cycle in cloud breaks. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor supercells with very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter). Clustering of storms through the evening will contribute to an increasing threat for severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph as convection spreads eastward toward the SD/ND/MT border region through tonight. Farther south into the High Plains, the scenario will be similar to the previous two days, with a few storm clusters expected to form east of the higher terrain and spread eastward through late evening. Buoyancy/vertical shear will be sufficient for a couple of supercells with some hail threat, though relatively deep mixing supports upscale growth on outflow interactions, with an attendant threat for severe outflow gusts. ...Southeast SD/northwest IA/southwest MN this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward across southeast SD and northwest IA/southwest MN through this evening. Morning convection across northwest IA has weakened, but residual clouds linger. Some flow enhancement in the low-midlevels on the south side of the MCV, in combination with diurnal destabilization in cloud breaks/steep midlevel lapse rates, could support a cluster of storms with some hail/wind threat later this afternoon/evening. Will re-evaluate this corridor this afternoon, but will maintain MRGL risk given lingering clouds and some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization. ...NW/central TX today... Merged cold pools with overnight convection in OK continue to spread southward across western north TX, with a history of occasional measured gusts near 60 mph. Daytime heating/destabilization ahead of the cold pool will result in sufficient destabilization for storms to continue to develop southward with the cold pool. However, vertical shear is weakening with time with the loss of the nocturnal low-level jet, so convection organization is expected to slowly diminish over time. Still, the thermodynamic environment and the established cold pool (per surface observations and KDYX radar data) will support the continued potential for occasional strong-severe outflow gusts toward central TX/parts of the Edwards Plateau through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A front, reinforced by differential heating across southern VA, appears to be mixing slowly northward and could serve as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Weak enhancement to low-level shear/hodograph curvature along the boundary could support weakly rotating storms with the potential to produce a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, the main concern will be isolated wind damage with largely sub-severe winds where low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon along and south of the front. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 15 19:57:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Southern Nevada, Southwestern Utah and far Northwestern Arizona... Modest mid-level flow associated with a progressive upper-level trough will move into the Great Basin and Southwest Monday. A very dry, well-mixed boundary layer will support low teens to single digit relative humidity values across the region. A corridor of 20-30 mph winds are most likely from southern Nevada into south-central Utah where very low daytime humidity will support Critical fire weather conditions amid dry fuels. ...Columbia Basin... The upper-level short wave translating through the Pacific Northwest Monday will contribute to enhanced downslope winds particularly across the western portions of the Columbia Basin. West winds of around 15 mph combined with relative humidity in the 15-25 percent range will result in elevated fire weather concerns for central Washington state and Columbia River Gorge where ongoing fire activity remains. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse California and into the Great Basin, and the surface mass response to this feature will tighten the sea-level pressure gradient across the area, resulting in strong surface winds. With seasonably strong vertical mixing, RH in the Great Basin and Four Corners region is expected to be around 5-15%. The best overlap of windy conditions and dry fuels is expected to be across parts of southeast Nevada, southwest Utah, and far northwest Arizona, where Critical highlights have been added. In this area, winds are expected to be near 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph underneath the core of the mid-level jet associated with the shortwave trough. Surrounding that Critical area, winds may be weaker and fuels less receptive to fire spread. However, this still warrants an Elevated area across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more