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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-007-011-013-015-023-025-029-033-037-041-053-055-057-059- 061-065-085-087-089-105-160640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH DIVIDE DUNN EMMONS GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER SIOUX SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN TO 40 NE RAP TO 45 SSW 2WX TO 50 ESE 4BQ. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC021-031-041-055-063-065-071-075-085-095-105-107-117-119-121- 123-129-137-160640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY HAAKON HARDING HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE PERKINS POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

877
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...western North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160330Z - 160530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms continue to move east across Montana this evening. With time, these storms will move east into North Dakota posing a risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail. A watch will likely be needed shortly for portions of North Dakota. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms continue this evening across eastern Montana within a strongly sheared and very buoyant airmass. These thunderstorms, aided by large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough moving through, should continue to merge together and grow upscale into a large MCS that progresses east into portions of western North Dakota. The airmass ahead of this line across North Dakota remains strongly sheared, and as buoyant or greater than areas to the west. Thus, with most-unstable CAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg near the Canadian border to more than 3000 J/kg across the North Dakota/South Dakota border, thunderstorms should be able to persist east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #418. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions of North Dakota. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 45960400 49030398 48989986 45989987 45960400 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0422 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CDR TO 45 SSW 2WX TO 55 ESE 4BQ. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-021-031-033-041-047-055-063-065-071-075-081-085-093- 095-102-103-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-160340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING HUGHES JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CDR TO 45 SSW 2WX TO 55 ESE 4BQ. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-021-031-033-041-047-055-063-065-071-075-081-085-093- 095-102-103-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-160340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON CUSTER DEWEY FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING HUGHES JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ITR TO 45 NE AIA TO 30 E CDR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-125-160340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-153-181-160340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135- 161-171-160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ITR TO 45 NE AIA TO 30 E CDR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-125-160340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-153-181-160340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135- 161-171-160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ITR TO 45 NE AIA TO 30 E CDR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-125-160340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-153-181-160340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135- 161-171-160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ITR TO 45 NE AIA TO 30 E CDR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-125-160340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-153-181-160340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135- 161-171-160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ITR TO 45 NE AIA TO 30 E CDR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC063-125-160340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON YUMA KSC023-153-181-160340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE RAWLINS SHERMAN NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117-135- 161-171-160340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN GRANT HAYES HITCHCOCK Read more

WW 420 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 152245Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western and West-Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts through much of the evening. A cluster of thunderstorms may evolve by the early to mid evening, and the threat for severe gusts may persist into the late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Alliance NE to 35 miles west of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 4BQ TO 10 ENE BHK TO 15 NNE SDY. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 418 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC109-160500- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 4BQ TO 10 ENE BHK TO 15 NNE SDY. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 418 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/05Z. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC109-160500- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE 4BQ TO 45 SSW BHK TO 35 SW BHK TO 15 ENE MLS TO 15 NNE SDY. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-021-025-079-109-160640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW COD TO 40 E LWT TO 30 SW GGW. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-019-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-071-075-079-083- 085-087-091-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-160340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC033-160340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN Read more